By Vincent Boland in Ankara
The head of Turkey's armed forces used a visit to the US this month to fire a warning shot across the bows of his political masters at home.
Turkey was facing more threats to its national security than at any time in its modern history, General Yashar Buyukanit said, but its "dynamic forces" - its soldiers - would prevent any attempt to "break up the country".
Within days, the government in Ankara dropped a tentative plan to open official lines of communication with the civilian Kurdish leadership in northern Iraq - a controversial initiative but one that many countries are urging.
The government's acquiescence on an important foreign policy issue represents a decisive victory for military over political thinking. It also highlighted the continued influence of the military a decade after the generals ousted an Islamist government without firing a shot - an event that has become known as the "post-modern coup".
Despite legal and constitutional changes in the past four years to reduce their visibility in public life, to give civilian leaders a bigger say in matters of national security and to make the armed forces more accountable to parliament, the Turkish general staff can still influence and change government policy in a way that would be impossible in other European countries.
Cengiz Aktar, a professor at Bahcesehir University, says Gen Buyukanit's Washington speech was meant to send a signal to the end-of-term government and the nation at large that the military retained a pre-eminent role on national issues such as the threat of separatism. "If there was the slightest will on the part of the political leadership of Turkey to talk to the Kurdish leaders in Iraq, that will has now gone," he says.
Turkey has a history of military interference in its political affairs It is one of the legacies that most compromises its attempt to join the European Union.
In addition to the February 1997 coup there have been three coups d'état since 1960, complete with tanks on the streets, mass arrests, new constitutions and generals in uniform assuming top political positions. These interventions were sometimes welcomed by Turks, who regard the military as the country's most trustworthy institution.
Reforms to the status of a status-obsessed military since 2002 were accepted by the general staff because they were necessary to secure the opening of EU entry talks. Now, some observers say, Gen Buyukanit is testing the revised constitutional arrangements to see where the new border between the politicians and the military in Turkey lies.
"It's his attempt to understand the new parameters," says Omer Faruk Genckaya, an associate professor of political science at Bilkent University.
In particular, some observers say, the generals are worried that the constitutional changes have weakened the national security council - which was once dominated by the military and is now run by a civilian - without strengthening the political or civilian alternatives. This, they believe, has occurred at a time when Turkey's neighbourhood - it shares a border with Iraq, Iran, Syria, Georgia and Armenia - is going through profound upheaval.
Omer Taspinar, a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, says Gen Buyukanit's prominence in recent weeks reflect the weakness of politicians as much as the new-found confidence of the military. "In the political vacuum created by inept politicians, both in power and in opposition, the general staff is once again filling a void and increasingly becoming a barometer of Turkey's stance," he wrote last week.
Gen Buyukanit has clashed with the government before, on issues from internal security to Cyprus. He seems certain to do so again in the run-up to presidential and parliamentary elections this year - as long as he feels the military is a better judge of the public mood than politicians. "Until politicians become more honest about the problems Turkey is facing, the military will always see a role for itself in society," Prof Genckaya says.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Monday, February 26, 2007
The Long View: Demographics may show the consolations of old age
By Chris Brown-Humes
Populations in many parts of the developed world are shrinking. The ratio of pensioners to workers is rising. Economic and corporate profits growth must slow and financial markets sell off.
That is one view of how demographic change will play out in the next few decades. While a number of trends counter the economic impact of ageing, things do not seem particularly encouraging. Baby boomers are starting to retire in the developed world at a time when many families are having fewer children.
According to the UN, in the US, Japan and Europe – 70 per cent of the world economy – there will be as many people over 60 as of working age in 20 years’ time. In other words the ratio will shift to 50:50 from 30:70 at the start of this decade.
In certain parts of the globe the trend is particularly bad. Japan, Italy and Germany are well known for their adverse demographic profiles – Japan’s population is set to shrink from about 127m last year to 100m in 2050. Compare also China’s demographic profile with that of India. In the former, thanks to its one-child policy, population growth will be 6 per cent by 2050, while India’s is expected be 44 per cent.
As for emerging markets, while the populations of the Asia Pacific region and Latin America are set to grow robustly up to 2050, those of nearly all of central and eastern Europe will shrink – the notable exception being Turkey. Countries with high dependency ratios and falling populations could experience weaker economic growth and poorer investment returns. Lombard Street Research noted in a report last year: “In any economy, output growth can be treated as a function of changes to the labour force and of productivity growth. Further, the returns on financial assets over the long term tend to be related to output growth. Demographics can play a vital role in affecting a country’s output growth and so indirectly the return on financial assets.”
But the issue isn’t clear cut. Russia’s population may be shrinking, but in recent years its enormous resources and wealth along with the rising affluence of its middle class have made it an attractive investment destination rather than a place to avoid.
There is another aspect to the debate, which is the link between demographics and savings. This is based on the life-cycle theory that young people borrow, the middle-aged save and the elderly run down their savings. When a large proportion of the population is middle-aged, savings are high as people prepare for retirement. Equally, when the supply of savings is high, their price falls. In bond markets, this should mean lower yields. But the opposite is also the case: when the supply of savings is low – which could be the case when the number of retirees is high – yields should go up. So a rising dependency ratio could mean higher global bond yields.
As for equity markets, the price of shares should fall as baby boomers retire and cash in their savings. That process is exacerbated if there are fewer people of working age to buy them.
Things may not turn out so badly. According to Standard Life Investments, there are at least three reasons for economic growth not to be hit as badly by demographic change as pessimists fear. The first is the rapid growth of the developing economies, led by Brazil, Russia, India and China. The so-called Bric economies could be bigger than the G6 by 2035 in dollar terms, and 50 per cent bigger than them by 2050.
Second is migration. The US has relied on net immigration for many years to lift economic growth. More recently, UK economic performance seems to have benefited from an influx of workers from eastern Europe. Of course migration is a zero sum game: one country’s gain is another country’s loss in pure numerical terms. But that does not mean the net economic effect of migration is zero: it has the potential to lift the growth rate in some economies, just as it can improve labour market efficiency and cut unemployment.
Third is the increased willingness of retirees to work. A recent survey showed that 63 per cent of Japanese retirees planned to work at least part time. In any case, people are having to work longer as retirement ages are increased to offset burdens on state pension systems.
One final factor to consider is the accuracy of demographic projections. The UN sometimes changes its forecasts. For example, in 2000 it projected Spain’s population would be 31.3m in 2050. By 2004, its forecast for that year had climbed to 42.5m.
In spite of such positives, Richard Batty, global investment strategist at Standard Life Investments, says: “We would still expect global GDP growth to slow,” he says. “Specific examples include the US, where commentators are talking about trend growth rates slowing from 3-3.5 per cent to 2.5-3 per cent in, say, the next two decades. Similarly, the EU Commission has warned of slower trend growth ahead – around 0.5 per cent less than the current 1.5-2 per cent trend growth rates assumed.”
The basic message seems to be: do not exaggerate the impact of demographic change. Instead, look closely at regional and country allocations while not forgetting the positive impact that many (high-spending) retirees will have on sectors such as travel and leisure and healthcare.
chris.brown-humes@ft.com
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Populations in many parts of the developed world are shrinking. The ratio of pensioners to workers is rising. Economic and corporate profits growth must slow and financial markets sell off.
That is one view of how demographic change will play out in the next few decades. While a number of trends counter the economic impact of ageing, things do not seem particularly encouraging. Baby boomers are starting to retire in the developed world at a time when many families are having fewer children.
According to the UN, in the US, Japan and Europe – 70 per cent of the world economy – there will be as many people over 60 as of working age in 20 years’ time. In other words the ratio will shift to 50:50 from 30:70 at the start of this decade.
In certain parts of the globe the trend is particularly bad. Japan, Italy and Germany are well known for their adverse demographic profiles – Japan’s population is set to shrink from about 127m last year to 100m in 2050. Compare also China’s demographic profile with that of India. In the former, thanks to its one-child policy, population growth will be 6 per cent by 2050, while India’s is expected be 44 per cent.
As for emerging markets, while the populations of the Asia Pacific region and Latin America are set to grow robustly up to 2050, those of nearly all of central and eastern Europe will shrink – the notable exception being Turkey. Countries with high dependency ratios and falling populations could experience weaker economic growth and poorer investment returns. Lombard Street Research noted in a report last year: “In any economy, output growth can be treated as a function of changes to the labour force and of productivity growth. Further, the returns on financial assets over the long term tend to be related to output growth. Demographics can play a vital role in affecting a country’s output growth and so indirectly the return on financial assets.”
But the issue isn’t clear cut. Russia’s population may be shrinking, but in recent years its enormous resources and wealth along with the rising affluence of its middle class have made it an attractive investment destination rather than a place to avoid.
There is another aspect to the debate, which is the link between demographics and savings. This is based on the life-cycle theory that young people borrow, the middle-aged save and the elderly run down their savings. When a large proportion of the population is middle-aged, savings are high as people prepare for retirement. Equally, when the supply of savings is high, their price falls. In bond markets, this should mean lower yields. But the opposite is also the case: when the supply of savings is low – which could be the case when the number of retirees is high – yields should go up. So a rising dependency ratio could mean higher global bond yields.
As for equity markets, the price of shares should fall as baby boomers retire and cash in their savings. That process is exacerbated if there are fewer people of working age to buy them.
Things may not turn out so badly. According to Standard Life Investments, there are at least three reasons for economic growth not to be hit as badly by demographic change as pessimists fear. The first is the rapid growth of the developing economies, led by Brazil, Russia, India and China. The so-called Bric economies could be bigger than the G6 by 2035 in dollar terms, and 50 per cent bigger than them by 2050.
Second is migration. The US has relied on net immigration for many years to lift economic growth. More recently, UK economic performance seems to have benefited from an influx of workers from eastern Europe. Of course migration is a zero sum game: one country’s gain is another country’s loss in pure numerical terms. But that does not mean the net economic effect of migration is zero: it has the potential to lift the growth rate in some economies, just as it can improve labour market efficiency and cut unemployment.
Third is the increased willingness of retirees to work. A recent survey showed that 63 per cent of Japanese retirees planned to work at least part time. In any case, people are having to work longer as retirement ages are increased to offset burdens on state pension systems.
One final factor to consider is the accuracy of demographic projections. The UN sometimes changes its forecasts. For example, in 2000 it projected Spain’s population would be 31.3m in 2050. By 2004, its forecast for that year had climbed to 42.5m.
In spite of such positives, Richard Batty, global investment strategist at Standard Life Investments, says: “We would still expect global GDP growth to slow,” he says. “Specific examples include the US, where commentators are talking about trend growth rates slowing from 3-3.5 per cent to 2.5-3 per cent in, say, the next two decades. Similarly, the EU Commission has warned of slower trend growth ahead – around 0.5 per cent less than the current 1.5-2 per cent trend growth rates assumed.”
The basic message seems to be: do not exaggerate the impact of demographic change. Instead, look closely at regional and country allocations while not forgetting the positive impact that many (high-spending) retirees will have on sectors such as travel and leisure and healthcare.
chris.brown-humes@ft.com
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Islamic gathering in Pakistan not aimed at Shiites or Iran, says Turkish premier
CAIRO, Egypt: A string of meetings in Pakistan on Sunday for leaders of key Muslim Sunni nations are not aimed at forging an alliance against Shiite Iran, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
Pakistan will host a meeting of foreign ministers from seven Muslim nations on Sunday to discuss how to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and bring peace to Iraq and Afghanistan. Media reports in the Arab world suggested, however, that Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf aims to establish up a Sunni alliance to confront rising influence of Shiite Iran in the region.
"This is not designed to isolate any country," Erdogan told the Qatari-based Al-Jazeera television network Saturday. "It should not be taken from this (point of view)," he said in the interview recorded earlier Saturday in Istanbul, Turkey.
Musharraf has toured the Middle East and Asia to garner support for a Muslim initiative to stem the deepening conflicts that are destabilizing parts of the Islamic world.
The foreign ministers of Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia will gather in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Sunday to lay the groundwork for a summit of Muslim leaders at an unspecified date in the holy city of Mecca, Saudi Arabia.
The goal of the summit is "a new initiative to address the grave situation in the Middle East, in particular the Palestinian issue, and for harmony in the Islamic world," the Pakistani foreign minister has said in a statement.
Musharraf visited Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey and Iran in recent weeks to seek common ground for his initiative. He did not invite Iran or Syria for the meeting in Islamabad on Sunday.
Erdogan said Iran and Syria will be invited in a later stage.
Pakistan's foreign ministry spokeswoman Tasnim Aslan denied the conference aims at forming a Sunni alliance.
"It is not for Sunni countries, they are Islamic countries," she told Al-Jazeera, according to its Arabic translation of her comments broadcast Saturday by the channel on another show.
Musharraf has not announced concrete proposals to stabilize the Middle East, and it remains unclear how his ideas might relate to the efforts of the so-called Quartet — the U.S., the European Union, Russia and the U.N. — to revive its "road map" plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Pakistan will host a meeting of foreign ministers from seven Muslim nations on Sunday to discuss how to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and bring peace to Iraq and Afghanistan. Media reports in the Arab world suggested, however, that Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf aims to establish up a Sunni alliance to confront rising influence of Shiite Iran in the region.
"This is not designed to isolate any country," Erdogan told the Qatari-based Al-Jazeera television network Saturday. "It should not be taken from this (point of view)," he said in the interview recorded earlier Saturday in Istanbul, Turkey.
Musharraf has toured the Middle East and Asia to garner support for a Muslim initiative to stem the deepening conflicts that are destabilizing parts of the Islamic world.
The foreign ministers of Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia will gather in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Sunday to lay the groundwork for a summit of Muslim leaders at an unspecified date in the holy city of Mecca, Saudi Arabia.
The goal of the summit is "a new initiative to address the grave situation in the Middle East, in particular the Palestinian issue, and for harmony in the Islamic world," the Pakistani foreign minister has said in a statement.
Musharraf visited Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey and Iran in recent weeks to seek common ground for his initiative. He did not invite Iran or Syria for the meeting in Islamabad on Sunday.
Erdogan said Iran and Syria will be invited in a later stage.
Pakistan's foreign ministry spokeswoman Tasnim Aslan denied the conference aims at forming a Sunni alliance.
"It is not for Sunni countries, they are Islamic countries," she told Al-Jazeera, according to its Arabic translation of her comments broadcast Saturday by the channel on another show.
Musharraf has not announced concrete proposals to stabilize the Middle East, and it remains unclear how his ideas might relate to the efforts of the so-called Quartet — the U.S., the European Union, Russia and the U.N. — to revive its "road map" plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Iraqi vice president pledges cooperation with Turkey against Kurdish separatists
ANKARA, Turkey: Iraq's vice president on Wednesday assured Ankara of his country's support for Turkey in its conflict with Kurdish separatist rebels.
Turkey is pressing neighboring Iraq and its ally, the United States, to crack down on rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, who launch attacks on Turkey from bases in northern Iraq.
The group has been waging a bloody war in southeast Turkey since 1984 in a conflict that has claimed 37,000 lives.
Turkey has not ruled out military incursions into Iraq to hunt separatist Kurds, despite warnings from Washington, which fears that such a move could lead to tensions with local Iraqi Kurdish groups, an important ally of the U.S. in Iraq.
"We cannot struggle against foreign organizations," a translator initially quoted Adil Abdul-Mahdi — one of Iraq's two vice presidents_ as saying during a joint news conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul.
But Abdul-Mahdi's statement, in Arabic, appeared to come as a surprise to Gul who questioned whether there may have been a translation error.
The Iraqi vice president then corrected his statement saying: "It is out of the question for us not to struggle against foreign organizations."
Abdul-Mahdi said Iraqi forces would do their best to prevent attacks on Turkey from Iraqi soil.
Iraqi Kurds, accused by Turkey's military of supporting separatist Kurdish guerrillas, have been urging Turkey to consider political solutions to deal with the guerrillas, saying any incursion would amount to interfering with Iraq's internal affairs.
The United States has been trying to address Turkish concerns in countering the PKK through mediation led by retired Gen. Joseph Ralston, a former NATO supreme allied commander.
But Turkish officials have accused Washington of not doing enough to help counter separatist Kurdish rebels operating inside neighboring Iraq.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said no action has been taken to expel the PKK from bases in northern Iraq or to cut off financial support to the rebel group. The group is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.
Turkey is pressing neighboring Iraq and its ally, the United States, to crack down on rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, who launch attacks on Turkey from bases in northern Iraq.
The group has been waging a bloody war in southeast Turkey since 1984 in a conflict that has claimed 37,000 lives.
Turkey has not ruled out military incursions into Iraq to hunt separatist Kurds, despite warnings from Washington, which fears that such a move could lead to tensions with local Iraqi Kurdish groups, an important ally of the U.S. in Iraq.
"We cannot struggle against foreign organizations," a translator initially quoted Adil Abdul-Mahdi — one of Iraq's two vice presidents_ as saying during a joint news conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul.
But Abdul-Mahdi's statement, in Arabic, appeared to come as a surprise to Gul who questioned whether there may have been a translation error.
The Iraqi vice president then corrected his statement saying: "It is out of the question for us not to struggle against foreign organizations."
Abdul-Mahdi said Iraqi forces would do their best to prevent attacks on Turkey from Iraqi soil.
Iraqi Kurds, accused by Turkey's military of supporting separatist Kurdish guerrillas, have been urging Turkey to consider political solutions to deal with the guerrillas, saying any incursion would amount to interfering with Iraq's internal affairs.
The United States has been trying to address Turkish concerns in countering the PKK through mediation led by retired Gen. Joseph Ralston, a former NATO supreme allied commander.
But Turkish officials have accused Washington of not doing enough to help counter separatist Kurdish rebels operating inside neighboring Iraq.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said no action has been taken to expel the PKK from bases in northern Iraq or to cut off financial support to the rebel group. The group is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.
Cyprus to go ahead with oil and gas exploration despite Turkey's opposition
ATHENS, Greece: Cyprus' president said Wednesday his government would press ahead with an offshore oil and gas exploration program, dismissing strong objections from Turkey.
But Tassos Papadopoulos warned that it was uncertain whether possible fuel deposits off the island's southern coast would be sufficient for commercial exploitation.
"We will exercise our sovereign rights," Papadopoulos said. "If (Turkey) wants to break international law in an act of provocation, I believe the international community must judge this."
"The exploitation of deposits, if they are located in commercially exploitable quantities — and this is a major if — will be handled accordingly," Papadopoulos said after talks with Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis.
Angering Turkey, Cyprus opened international bidding last week for 11 offshore areas, with a number of international firms showing interest. The divided island's internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government has also signed deals with Lebanon and Egypt to mark out Mediterranean sea boundaries.
Papadopoulos accused Turkey of engaging in "threats and provocations" by warning Cyprus not to go ahead with the project.
Karamanlis said it was "self-evident" that EU member Cyprus had the sovereign right to conduct offshore exploration.
He said Turkey, as a candidate for EU membership, was "obliged to maintain good neighborly relations and conform to international law."
The island has been divided into a Greek Cypriot controlled south and a breakaway Turkish Cypriot north since a Turkish invasion in 1974. Turkey — which does not recognize Papadopoulos' Greek Cypriot government — has said the exploration project would conflict with Turkish rights in the area, as well as those of Turkish Cypriots.
Turkish officials said they could proceed with their own exploration plans, threatening tension with Greece. Both countries came close to war in 1987 because of a dispute over oil rights in disputed areas of the Aegean Sea.
But Tassos Papadopoulos warned that it was uncertain whether possible fuel deposits off the island's southern coast would be sufficient for commercial exploitation.
"We will exercise our sovereign rights," Papadopoulos said. "If (Turkey) wants to break international law in an act of provocation, I believe the international community must judge this."
"The exploitation of deposits, if they are located in commercially exploitable quantities — and this is a major if — will be handled accordingly," Papadopoulos said after talks with Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis.
Angering Turkey, Cyprus opened international bidding last week for 11 offshore areas, with a number of international firms showing interest. The divided island's internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government has also signed deals with Lebanon and Egypt to mark out Mediterranean sea boundaries.
Papadopoulos accused Turkey of engaging in "threats and provocations" by warning Cyprus not to go ahead with the project.
Karamanlis said it was "self-evident" that EU member Cyprus had the sovereign right to conduct offshore exploration.
He said Turkey, as a candidate for EU membership, was "obliged to maintain good neighborly relations and conform to international law."
The island has been divided into a Greek Cypriot controlled south and a breakaway Turkish Cypriot north since a Turkish invasion in 1974. Turkey — which does not recognize Papadopoulos' Greek Cypriot government — has said the exploration project would conflict with Turkish rights in the area, as well as those of Turkish Cypriots.
Turkish officials said they could proceed with their own exploration plans, threatening tension with Greece. Both countries came close to war in 1987 because of a dispute over oil rights in disputed areas of the Aegean Sea.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
US genocide bill angers Turks
Simon Tisdall
Friday February 16, 2007
The Guardian
It seems an odd way to treat a friend. Washington's relations with Turkey, a key Nato ally, have been on the slide since 2003 when Ankara's parliament refused to allow US troops to transit into Iraq. That infuriated the Bush administration. Ensuing chaos in Iraq and the impetus the occupation has given Kurdish secessionism infuriated Turks in their turn. Iran and Hamas are other points of strain. One recent poll found that 81% of Turks disapprove of US policies.
Now the relationship is heading for a potentially spectacular rupture following the decision of the US House of Representatives' newly installed Democratic leadership to follow France in endorsing a bill officially recognising as genocide the 1915 killings of Christian Armenians by Muslim Turks. As matters stand, there is sufficient bipartisan support to pass the measure if, as expected, it is put to a vote in the next few weeks.
The genocide label is an ultra-sensitive issue in Turkey. It has long claimed that mass killings at the time by both sides were part of the civil upheavals accompanying the collapse of the Ottoman empire. "If this measure is adopted it will create a very serious problem in US-Turkish relations," a senior Turkish official said yesterday. "You cannot put Turkey in the same shoes as the Nazis." Armenia (and the Armenian diaspora) should accept a proposal by Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to set up a joint commission to study what happened, the official said.
But politics in Ankara and Washington are stoking confrontation. A presidential election is due in Turkey in May, followed by parliamentary polls this autumn. Neither Mr Erdogan, tipped as the next president, nor other candidates can ignore intense national feelings stirred by the genocide debate. At the same time, the Democratic speaker, Nancy Pelosi, like other House members from California, has a vociferous Armenian-American constituency to placate. When Turkey's foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, was in Washington last week, she refused to meet him. "Local politics must not be allowed to poison strategic ties," Mr Gul said later. Passage of the bill would create a "nightmare".
Calls are already being heard in Turkey for a downgrading of bilateral military cooperation, including logistical assistance to US forces in Iraq. General Yasar Buyukanit, chief of the Turkish general staff, went to the Pentagon this week to spell out the possible damaging consequences.
"Turkey is playing the security card against the genocide bill," wrote columnist Mehmet Ali Birand of the Turkish Daily News. That meant reminding the Americans of Turkey's contributions in Afghanistan and Kosovo, its supportive ties to Israel - Ehud Olmert was in Ankara yesterday - and the way it "actively participates in communications between Iran and the US".
The White House opposes the bill but may be unable to stop it. Meanwhile, the US is urging Turkish "outreach" to Armenia in the wake of the Hrant Dink murder.
But new reasons for killing off the resolution are emerging every day. One is that a surge in anti-Americanism following its passage could translate into a Turkish decision to ignore Washington and send its troops into northern Iraq, with potentially disastrous consequences for US efforts to stabilise the country.
The senior Turkish official said there was no plan to intervene and no link to the genocide bill. But Ankara is increasingly impatient over US reluctance to suppress armed PKK separatists who launch raids into south-east Turkey from Iraqi Kurdistan. And according to Asli Aydinbas, of Sabah newspaper, a "limited and defined" Turkish military intervention in Iraq is already on the cards.
"The US government believes passage of the Armenian resolution would make a cross-border operation more likely," he said. "Even a debate on the floor of the House of Representatives would end Washington's power to deter such an operation." Seen this way, the genocide bill could spark a whole new bloodbath.
Friday February 16, 2007
The Guardian
It seems an odd way to treat a friend. Washington's relations with Turkey, a key Nato ally, have been on the slide since 2003 when Ankara's parliament refused to allow US troops to transit into Iraq. That infuriated the Bush administration. Ensuing chaos in Iraq and the impetus the occupation has given Kurdish secessionism infuriated Turks in their turn. Iran and Hamas are other points of strain. One recent poll found that 81% of Turks disapprove of US policies.
Now the relationship is heading for a potentially spectacular rupture following the decision of the US House of Representatives' newly installed Democratic leadership to follow France in endorsing a bill officially recognising as genocide the 1915 killings of Christian Armenians by Muslim Turks. As matters stand, there is sufficient bipartisan support to pass the measure if, as expected, it is put to a vote in the next few weeks.
The genocide label is an ultra-sensitive issue in Turkey. It has long claimed that mass killings at the time by both sides were part of the civil upheavals accompanying the collapse of the Ottoman empire. "If this measure is adopted it will create a very serious problem in US-Turkish relations," a senior Turkish official said yesterday. "You cannot put Turkey in the same shoes as the Nazis." Armenia (and the Armenian diaspora) should accept a proposal by Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to set up a joint commission to study what happened, the official said.
But politics in Ankara and Washington are stoking confrontation. A presidential election is due in Turkey in May, followed by parliamentary polls this autumn. Neither Mr Erdogan, tipped as the next president, nor other candidates can ignore intense national feelings stirred by the genocide debate. At the same time, the Democratic speaker, Nancy Pelosi, like other House members from California, has a vociferous Armenian-American constituency to placate. When Turkey's foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, was in Washington last week, she refused to meet him. "Local politics must not be allowed to poison strategic ties," Mr Gul said later. Passage of the bill would create a "nightmare".
Calls are already being heard in Turkey for a downgrading of bilateral military cooperation, including logistical assistance to US forces in Iraq. General Yasar Buyukanit, chief of the Turkish general staff, went to the Pentagon this week to spell out the possible damaging consequences.
"Turkey is playing the security card against the genocide bill," wrote columnist Mehmet Ali Birand of the Turkish Daily News. That meant reminding the Americans of Turkey's contributions in Afghanistan and Kosovo, its supportive ties to Israel - Ehud Olmert was in Ankara yesterday - and the way it "actively participates in communications between Iran and the US".
The White House opposes the bill but may be unable to stop it. Meanwhile, the US is urging Turkish "outreach" to Armenia in the wake of the Hrant Dink murder.
But new reasons for killing off the resolution are emerging every day. One is that a surge in anti-Americanism following its passage could translate into a Turkish decision to ignore Washington and send its troops into northern Iraq, with potentially disastrous consequences for US efforts to stabilise the country.
The senior Turkish official said there was no plan to intervene and no link to the genocide bill. But Ankara is increasingly impatient over US reluctance to suppress armed PKK separatists who launch raids into south-east Turkey from Iraqi Kurdistan. And according to Asli Aydinbas, of Sabah newspaper, a "limited and defined" Turkish military intervention in Iraq is already on the cards.
"The US government believes passage of the Armenian resolution would make a cross-border operation more likely," he said. "Even a debate on the floor of the House of Representatives would end Washington's power to deter such an operation." Seen this way, the genocide bill could spark a whole new bloodbath.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
US-Turkey relations set to worsen over Iraq and Armenian 'genocide'
By Guy Dinmore in Washington and Vincent Boland in Ankara
Turkey's strained relationship with the Bush administration is likely to worsen after its foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, failed to make significant progress on Ankara's main objectives in Washington this week.
Disagreements, centred on Iraq and a resolution proposed in the US Congress that would officially recognise the mass killings of Ottoman Armenians as genocide, threaten to intensify anti-American sentiment in Turkey, while raising concerns in the US about a possible Turkish military intervention in northern Iraq.
Analysts suggest the disputes could undermine US efforts to enlist Turkey's support in isolating Iran, an issue that Dick Cheney, US vice-president, is believed to have raised.
Mr Gul's week-long visit to the US had three main aims: to get a firm US commitment to act against anti-Turkish PKK militants in northern Iraq; to postpone a referendum due this year on the status of Iraq's Kurdish-claimed and oil-rich city of Kirkuk; and to lobby against the Armenia resolution.
"Gul will not leave Washington a very happy man," said Bulent Aliriza, analyst with the CSIS think-tank. "Relations will take a hit."
Mr Gul told reporters that the proposed genocide resolution - which is backed by key lawmakers, including Nancy Pelosi, Democratic speaker of the House - posed a "real threat" to US-Turkey relations.
"It really is a nightmare for us and for you. It will overshadow and spoil everything between us," he warned.
Ms Pelosi signalled her position by not being available to meet Mr Gul.
The White House is also unhappy with the resolution, but it remains uncertain how far President George W. Bush will go to lobby against it.
Several countries, notably France, have already adopted a similar stance on recognising the killings of Christian Armenians by Ottoman troops as the empire collapsed in 1915. Armenians say it was genocide. Turkey denies this and says they, and hundreds of thousands of Muslim Turks, died as a result of civil war, displacement, disease and hunger.
Anxiety has been heightened by the murder in Istanbul on January 19 of Hrant Dink, a prominent Turkish-Armenian journalist. Mr Dink was well known among the Armenian diaspora in the US, especially in California, the home state of Ms Pelosi.
On Kirkuk, US officials say it is for the Iraqi government to decide whether to proceed with the referendum to decide its status.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Turkey's strained relationship with the Bush administration is likely to worsen after its foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, failed to make significant progress on Ankara's main objectives in Washington this week.
Disagreements, centred on Iraq and a resolution proposed in the US Congress that would officially recognise the mass killings of Ottoman Armenians as genocide, threaten to intensify anti-American sentiment in Turkey, while raising concerns in the US about a possible Turkish military intervention in northern Iraq.
Analysts suggest the disputes could undermine US efforts to enlist Turkey's support in isolating Iran, an issue that Dick Cheney, US vice-president, is believed to have raised.
Mr Gul's week-long visit to the US had three main aims: to get a firm US commitment to act against anti-Turkish PKK militants in northern Iraq; to postpone a referendum due this year on the status of Iraq's Kurdish-claimed and oil-rich city of Kirkuk; and to lobby against the Armenia resolution.
"Gul will not leave Washington a very happy man," said Bulent Aliriza, analyst with the CSIS think-tank. "Relations will take a hit."
Mr Gul told reporters that the proposed genocide resolution - which is backed by key lawmakers, including Nancy Pelosi, Democratic speaker of the House - posed a "real threat" to US-Turkey relations.
"It really is a nightmare for us and for you. It will overshadow and spoil everything between us," he warned.
Ms Pelosi signalled her position by not being available to meet Mr Gul.
The White House is also unhappy with the resolution, but it remains uncertain how far President George W. Bush will go to lobby against it.
Several countries, notably France, have already adopted a similar stance on recognising the killings of Christian Armenians by Ottoman troops as the empire collapsed in 1915. Armenians say it was genocide. Turkey denies this and says they, and hundreds of thousands of Muslim Turks, died as a result of civil war, displacement, disease and hunger.
Anxiety has been heightened by the murder in Istanbul on January 19 of Hrant Dink, a prominent Turkish-Armenian journalist. Mr Dink was well known among the Armenian diaspora in the US, especially in California, the home state of Ms Pelosi.
On Kirkuk, US officials say it is for the Iraqi government to decide whether to proceed with the referendum to decide its status.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Monday, February 12, 2007
US-Turkey relations set to worsen over Iraq and Armenian 'genocide'
By Guy Dinmore in Washington and Vincent Boland in Ankara
Published: February 9 2007 02:00 | Last updated: February 9 2007 02:00
Turkey's strained relationship with the Bush administration is likely to worsen after its foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, failed to make significant progress on Ankara's main objectives in Washington this week.
Disagreements, centred on Iraq and a resolution proposed in the US Congress that would officially recognise the mass killings of Ottoman Armenians as genocide, threaten to intensify anti-American sentiment in Turkey, while raising concerns in the US about a possible Turkish military intervention in northern Iraq.
Analysts suggest the disputes could undermine US efforts to enlist Turkey's support in isolating Iran, an issue that Dick Cheney, US vice-president, is believed to have raised.
Mr Gul's week-long visit to the US had three main aims: to get a firm US commitment to act against anti-Turkish PKK militants in northern Iraq; to postpone a referendum due this year on the status of Iraq's Kurdish-claimed and oil-rich city of Kirkuk; and to lobby against the Armenia resolution.
"Gul will not leave Washington a very happy man," said Bulent Aliriza, analyst with the CSIS think-tank. "Relations will take a hit."
Mr Gul told reporters that the proposed genocide resolution - which is backed by key lawmakers, including Nancy Pelosi, Democratic speaker of the House - posed a "real threat" to US-Turkey relations.
"It really is a nightmare for us and for you. It will overshadow and spoil everything between us," he warned.
Ms Pelosi signalled her position by not being available to meet Mr Gul.
The White House is also unhappy with the resolution, but it remains uncertain how far President George W. Bush will go to lobby against it.
Several countries, notably France, have already adopted a similar stance on recognising the killings of Christian Armenians by Ottoman troops as the empire collapsed in 1915. Armenians say it was genocide. Turkey denies this and says they, and hundreds of thousands of Muslim Turks, died as a result of civil war, displacement, disease and hunger.
Anxiety has been heightened by the murder in Istanbul on January 19 of Hrant Dink, a prominent Turkish-Armenian journalist. Mr Dink was well known among the Armenian diaspora in the US, especially in California, the home state of Ms Pelosi.
On Kirkuk, US officials say it is for the Iraqi government to decide whether to proceed with the referendum to decide its status.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Turkey faces threat of radical nationalism
By Kaan Durukan
Published: January 12 2007 02:00 | Last updated: January 12 2007 02:00
From Mr Kaan Durukan.
Sir, As a student of the Middle East and Islamic civilisations, with a specific interest in the history of the Ottoman empire and modern Turkey, my home country, I found Vincent Boland's recent analysis pretty comprehensive and useful ("Why Turks are growing disillusioned with Europe", January 3). I just want to add - or occasionally underline - a few points.
In the first place, Mr Boland is right to detect the rise of a new type of nationalism in Turkey, triggered by the rapidly changing nature of the relationships with the west, the US and the European Union in particular. The threat is not the "Islamisation" of Turkey. In the worst-case scenario, if the European Union project fails for Turkey - or there is some crisis in
the process - the danger is not necessarily the rise of a radical Islam, but the domination of a radical nationalism.
For most Turks nationalism is the lowest common denominator of their identity regardless of social status, economic power or political affiliations. The foundations of this historical phenomenon lie in the glorious imperial past of Ottoman centuries, the total absence of a colonial rule (comparable only to China, Japan, Iran and Russia in this respect) and, most of all, the successful war of independence fought under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in the 1920s.
Under these circumstances, if Turkey feels humiliated by some additional criteria not applied by the EU to some other past/present candidates or if the calendar of admission becomes subject to significant changes or ambiguities, this crucial element of national pride may put an end to the process and the European Union may face a xenophobic neighbour instead of a collaborative partner.
Second, there are frequent references to the value systems that define Europe in the course of history, the most notable being Graeco-Roman origins, the Judaeo-Christian heritage, the Renaissance and the Enlightenment. One wonders if the principle of pacta sunt servanda, simply "to keep promises", which was around through all these centuries, is still an integral part of European political culture.
Referring to a legal agreement, the European Union quite rightly asks Turkey to recognise Cyprus like all the other member states (although the admission of the country in 2004 is an enigma, considering the extremely controversial situation of the island between Turkey, Greece and southern and northern sectors). But the EU seems to neglect the fact that the isolation of Turkish northern Cyprus, which voted for a viable solution with the support of the EU, US and the UN, still continues.
Kaan Durukan,
University of Wisconsin-Madison,
Madison, WI 53706, US
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: January 12 2007 02:00 | Last updated: January 12 2007 02:00
From Mr Kaan Durukan.
Sir, As a student of the Middle East and Islamic civilisations, with a specific interest in the history of the Ottoman empire and modern Turkey, my home country, I found Vincent Boland's recent analysis pretty comprehensive and useful ("Why Turks are growing disillusioned with Europe", January 3). I just want to add - or occasionally underline - a few points.
In the first place, Mr Boland is right to detect the rise of a new type of nationalism in Turkey, triggered by the rapidly changing nature of the relationships with the west, the US and the European Union in particular. The threat is not the "Islamisation" of Turkey. In the worst-case scenario, if the European Union project fails for Turkey - or there is some crisis in
the process - the danger is not necessarily the rise of a radical Islam, but the domination of a radical nationalism.
For most Turks nationalism is the lowest common denominator of their identity regardless of social status, economic power or political affiliations. The foundations of this historical phenomenon lie in the glorious imperial past of Ottoman centuries, the total absence of a colonial rule (comparable only to China, Japan, Iran and Russia in this respect) and, most of all, the successful war of independence fought under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in the 1920s.
Under these circumstances, if Turkey feels humiliated by some additional criteria not applied by the EU to some other past/present candidates or if the calendar of admission becomes subject to significant changes or ambiguities, this crucial element of national pride may put an end to the process and the European Union may face a xenophobic neighbour instead of a collaborative partner.
Second, there are frequent references to the value systems that define Europe in the course of history, the most notable being Graeco-Roman origins, the Judaeo-Christian heritage, the Renaissance and the Enlightenment. One wonders if the principle of pacta sunt servanda, simply "to keep promises", which was around through all these centuries, is still an integral part of European political culture.
Referring to a legal agreement, the European Union quite rightly asks Turkey to recognise Cyprus like all the other member states (although the admission of the country in 2004 is an enigma, considering the extremely controversial situation of the island between Turkey, Greece and southern and northern sectors). But the EU seems to neglect the fact that the isolation of Turkish northern Cyprus, which voted for a viable solution with the support of the EU, US and the UN, still continues.
Kaan Durukan,
University of Wisconsin-Madison,
Madison, WI 53706, US
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Journalist killed by gunman in Istanbul
By Vincent Boland in Istanbul
Published: January 20 2007 02:00 | Last updated: January 20 2007 02:00
A newspaper editor and leading figure in one of Turkey's most painful historical deb-ates - the massacre of Armenians - was shot dead yesterday.
Hrant Dink, 53, was shot three times in the head outside the offices of Agos, a weekly newspaper, in Istanbul. He died almost immediately. His murder brought swift condemnation from Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, who sent the interior and justice ministers to the city as an investigation started.
Mr Dink, a Turkish citizen of Armenian descent, had played a lead role in breaking the taboo on discussion of the massacre during the collapse of the Ottoman empire. He had been credited with trying to bring Turks and Armenians together but had been given a suspended prison sentence in 2005 for allegedly insulting the state.
Armenians allege that as many as 1.5m of their compatriots in the Ottoman empire fell victim to a campaign of genocide by the empire's rulers, beginning in 1915. Turkey denies genocide and insists that hundreds of thousands of Turks and Arm-enians died as the result of war, famine, ethnic cleansing and disease during that turbulent period.
Mr Dink's murder could have repercussions for Turkey in Washington. Both houses of the US Congress are due to debate a motion in the next few weeks that would recognise the Armenian massacre as genocide.
Turkey is fighting a rearguard diplomatic action to prevent it. The White House has indicated that it would not approve such a motion but the atmosphere in which the debate takes place will be clouded by yesterday's events.
There was a heavy police presence in Istanbul last night as Mr Dink's friends gathered outside the newspaper offices. Mr Erdogan said the murder was ''an attack on all of us'' and appealed for calm. Two men were under arrest last night in connection with the murder.
Most Turks are not aware of the fate of the Armenians because school textbooks make no reference to it.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: January 20 2007 02:00 | Last updated: January 20 2007 02:00
A newspaper editor and leading figure in one of Turkey's most painful historical deb-ates - the massacre of Armenians - was shot dead yesterday.
Hrant Dink, 53, was shot three times in the head outside the offices of Agos, a weekly newspaper, in Istanbul. He died almost immediately. His murder brought swift condemnation from Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, who sent the interior and justice ministers to the city as an investigation started.
Mr Dink, a Turkish citizen of Armenian descent, had played a lead role in breaking the taboo on discussion of the massacre during the collapse of the Ottoman empire. He had been credited with trying to bring Turks and Armenians together but had been given a suspended prison sentence in 2005 for allegedly insulting the state.
Armenians allege that as many as 1.5m of their compatriots in the Ottoman empire fell victim to a campaign of genocide by the empire's rulers, beginning in 1915. Turkey denies genocide and insists that hundreds of thousands of Turks and Arm-enians died as the result of war, famine, ethnic cleansing and disease during that turbulent period.
Mr Dink's murder could have repercussions for Turkey in Washington. Both houses of the US Congress are due to debate a motion in the next few weeks that would recognise the Armenian massacre as genocide.
Turkey is fighting a rearguard diplomatic action to prevent it. The White House has indicated that it would not approve such a motion but the atmosphere in which the debate takes place will be clouded by yesterday's events.
There was a heavy police presence in Istanbul last night as Mr Dink's friends gathered outside the newspaper offices. Mr Erdogan said the murder was ''an attack on all of us'' and appealed for calm. Two men were under arrest last night in connection with the murder.
Most Turks are not aware of the fate of the Armenians because school textbooks make no reference to it.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Turkey to step up reforms for EU accession
By George Parker in Brussels
Published: January 15 2007 02:00 Last updated: January 15 2007 02:00
Turkey has vowed to mount a "do-it-yourself" legislative onslaught to prepare for European Union membership, in spite of the fact that significant parts of the accession talks were suspended last month.
The move is being welcomed by Brussels as a positive reaction by Ankara to the partial breakdown of the talks.
Volkan Bozkir, Turkey's ambassador to the EU, said Ankara would respond to last month's setback by "accelerating" reforms so that it was ready to join the EU when the political climate changed.
Mr Bozkir told the Financial Times that Ankara had taken the latest blow to its accession prospects in a "calm and professional way". He said: "It shows Turkey wants to maintain its relationship with the EU.
"It would have been easy for Turkey to react strongly and to freeze part of its relationship or to express some kind of broken-heartedpsychology."
In December, the EU suspended membership talks in eight policy areas because of Turkey's refusal to open its ports to Cyprus - an EU member since 2004 - whose Greek Cypriot government Ankara refuses to recognise.
Last week, Abdullah Gul, Turkey's foreign minister, convened more than 150 senior officials from different government departments to order them to draw up detailed legislative plans to prepare the country for EU membership.
Mr Bozkir said legislative plans for the years up until 2013 would be submitted by the end of January and would then be prioritised, with the aim of bringing the country's laws and norms up to EU standards.
The plan would cover 32 outstanding subject areas of the membership negotiations, including the eight frozen last month. He hoped preparatory work would be almost complete when the EU finally decided to open detailed talks.
Recognising the risk of political deadlock with elections in Turkey this year and in Cyprus in 2008, he said: "We will use this dangerous period - this year and next year - so that we do not allow precious time to be lost."
But Mr Bozkir said there would be no amendments to Article 301 of the penal code - which makes it a crime to insult Turkey or its officials - before this year's elections. He said courts needed to build up jurisprudence to defend freedom of speech, which would be more effective than changing the law.
Olli Rehn, EU enlargement commissioner, said: "We certainly welcome Turkey's decision to pursue the reforms on the ground, although the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
"But overall this is a positive initiative, which shows they are doing these reforms for the sake of the citizens of Turkey, not just because of the EU."
Mr Bozkir said Ankara expected the EU to show good will in return by opening negotiations on several subject areas - or chapters - during the German presidency of the EU.
Some EU officials believe the chapter covering enterprise and industry could be opened by March.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: January 15 2007 02:00 Last updated: January 15 2007 02:00
Turkey has vowed to mount a "do-it-yourself" legislative onslaught to prepare for European Union membership, in spite of the fact that significant parts of the accession talks were suspended last month.
The move is being welcomed by Brussels as a positive reaction by Ankara to the partial breakdown of the talks.
Volkan Bozkir, Turkey's ambassador to the EU, said Ankara would respond to last month's setback by "accelerating" reforms so that it was ready to join the EU when the political climate changed.
Mr Bozkir told the Financial Times that Ankara had taken the latest blow to its accession prospects in a "calm and professional way". He said: "It shows Turkey wants to maintain its relationship with the EU.
"It would have been easy for Turkey to react strongly and to freeze part of its relationship or to express some kind of broken-heartedpsychology."
In December, the EU suspended membership talks in eight policy areas because of Turkey's refusal to open its ports to Cyprus - an EU member since 2004 - whose Greek Cypriot government Ankara refuses to recognise.
Last week, Abdullah Gul, Turkey's foreign minister, convened more than 150 senior officials from different government departments to order them to draw up detailed legislative plans to prepare the country for EU membership.
Mr Bozkir said legislative plans for the years up until 2013 would be submitted by the end of January and would then be prioritised, with the aim of bringing the country's laws and norms up to EU standards.
The plan would cover 32 outstanding subject areas of the membership negotiations, including the eight frozen last month. He hoped preparatory work would be almost complete when the EU finally decided to open detailed talks.
Recognising the risk of political deadlock with elections in Turkey this year and in Cyprus in 2008, he said: "We will use this dangerous period - this year and next year - so that we do not allow precious time to be lost."
But Mr Bozkir said there would be no amendments to Article 301 of the penal code - which makes it a crime to insult Turkey or its officials - before this year's elections. He said courts needed to build up jurisprudence to defend freedom of speech, which would be more effective than changing the law.
Olli Rehn, EU enlargement commissioner, said: "We certainly welcome Turkey's decision to pursue the reforms on the ground, although the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
"But overall this is a positive initiative, which shows they are doing these reforms for the sake of the citizens of Turkey, not just because of the EU."
Mr Bozkir said Ankara expected the EU to show good will in return by opening negotiations on several subject areas - or chapters - during the German presidency of the EU.
Some EU officials believe the chapter covering enterprise and industry could be opened by March.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
EU's Barroso and Italy's Prodi back continuation of Turkey EU membership talks
The Associated Press
Published: January 15, 2007
ROME: European Union membership negotiations with Turkey should continue despite last month's partial freeze in talks, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Italian Premier Romano Prodi said on Monday .
Barroso said that the commission "remains committed to the continuation of these negotiations for enlargement, notably for Turkey," but recognized that the process will be "long and complex."
Speaking at a joint news conference after meeting with Prodi over breakfast, Barroso reiterated that to gain membership Ankara must comply with "all conditions and criteria" imposed by the European Union. Prodi said Italy's position on the issue is "identical" to the commission's.
EU leaders decided last month to halt negotiations in eight out of 35 policy areas due to Ankara's refusal to open its ports and airports to EU member Cyprus, whose government Turkey does not recognize.
Turkey insists it will only open its ports and airports after steps are taken to end the international isolation of a breakaway Turkish Cypriot republic in the island's north.
Turkey has vowed, nevertheless, to press ahead with other reforms.
Prodi and Barroso met hours before they were scheduled to travel to Slovenia to celebrate with other EU leaders that country's entry into the euro zone. As of Monday, the euro is the only currency accepted in Slovenia, although people will be able to swap their old currency, the tolar, at banks free of charge until March 1, or exchange them at the country's central bank.
Published: January 15, 2007
ROME: European Union membership negotiations with Turkey should continue despite last month's partial freeze in talks, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Italian Premier Romano Prodi said on Monday .
Barroso said that the commission "remains committed to the continuation of these negotiations for enlargement, notably for Turkey," but recognized that the process will be "long and complex."
Speaking at a joint news conference after meeting with Prodi over breakfast, Barroso reiterated that to gain membership Ankara must comply with "all conditions and criteria" imposed by the European Union. Prodi said Italy's position on the issue is "identical" to the commission's.
EU leaders decided last month to halt negotiations in eight out of 35 policy areas due to Ankara's refusal to open its ports and airports to EU member Cyprus, whose government Turkey does not recognize.
Turkey insists it will only open its ports and airports after steps are taken to end the international isolation of a breakaway Turkish Cypriot republic in the island's north.
Turkey has vowed, nevertheless, to press ahead with other reforms.
Prodi and Barroso met hours before they were scheduled to travel to Slovenia to celebrate with other EU leaders that country's entry into the euro zone. As of Monday, the euro is the only currency accepted in Slovenia, although people will be able to swap their old currency, the tolar, at banks free of charge until March 1, or exchange them at the country's central bank.
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
Nobel winner Orhan Pamuk is editor-in-chief for a day at Turkish newspaper
ISTANBUL, Turkey: Novelist and Nobel Prize winner Orhan Pamuk devoted the front page of a major Turkish newspaper Sunday to the oppression of artists in his native country, fulfilling an old dream of becoming a professional journalist, if only for a day.
Pamuk, whose trial last year for the crime of "insulting Turkishness" received international condemnation, has a degree in journalism but had never practiced the profession. He was given editorial privileges for the Sunday edition of the newspaper Radikal.
Pamuk's cover story criticized the Turkish press and the state for the suppression of free expression in Turkey.
His banner headline quoted a 1951 article about the Turkish intellectual Nazim Hikmet, an acclaimed poet and denounced communist who spent many years in prison in Turkey for his leftist affiliations and later died in exile in Moscow. His sorrowful exile from his beloved country inspired many of his best-known poems.
The 1951 article had featured Hikmet's photograph along with an encouragement for the Turkish public to recognize him and "spit in his face."
"This expression, which was used beside Nazim Hikmet's picture, summarizes the unchanging position of writers and artists in the eyes of the state and the press," Pamuk's cover story said.
Pamuk, winner of the Nobel prize in literature last year, was one of dozens of authors, journalists, publishers and scholars who have been charged with insulting Turkey, its officials or "Turkishness" under an infamous article of the Turkish penal code. The charges against Pamuk were dropped on a technicality in January 2006.
The European Union has demanded that Turkey change its penal code to ensure freedom of expression, but Turkey has yet to act on those demands.
In the corner of the front page, Pamuk addressed writers directly in a friendly, self-effacing column under the headline, "I was a journalist for Radikal yesterday!"
He said the editorship for a day was a way to realize years of unfulfilled professional dreams, but that he lost all confidence on the way to work at the newspaper's offices.
Pamuk remains a divisive figure in Turkey, where nationalists accuse him of treason for talking about the killings of Armenians and Kurds. He took credit for all the articles that readers didn't like, and gave credit for the articles they did like to the workers of Radikal.
Pamuk's front page also featured an article about a ceremony for Orthodox Christmas in Istanbul. It ran under the headline, "One cross, a thousand police" — a reference to security concerns that surround the Istanbul-based leader of the Orthodox church and Turkey's dwindling Greek Orthodox community.
Nationalists, who are deeply suspicious of the Orthodox church's goals in predominantly Muslim Turkey, have interrupted the Orthodox religious ceremony before.
Other articles on Pamuk's front page dealt with the low percentage of women in politics in Turkey and reactions to the publication of video footage of the execution of Saddam Hussein.
The Associated Press
Pamuk, whose trial last year for the crime of "insulting Turkishness" received international condemnation, has a degree in journalism but had never practiced the profession. He was given editorial privileges for the Sunday edition of the newspaper Radikal.
Pamuk's cover story criticized the Turkish press and the state for the suppression of free expression in Turkey.
His banner headline quoted a 1951 article about the Turkish intellectual Nazim Hikmet, an acclaimed poet and denounced communist who spent many years in prison in Turkey for his leftist affiliations and later died in exile in Moscow. His sorrowful exile from his beloved country inspired many of his best-known poems.
The 1951 article had featured Hikmet's photograph along with an encouragement for the Turkish public to recognize him and "spit in his face."
"This expression, which was used beside Nazim Hikmet's picture, summarizes the unchanging position of writers and artists in the eyes of the state and the press," Pamuk's cover story said.
Pamuk, winner of the Nobel prize in literature last year, was one of dozens of authors, journalists, publishers and scholars who have been charged with insulting Turkey, its officials or "Turkishness" under an infamous article of the Turkish penal code. The charges against Pamuk were dropped on a technicality in January 2006.
The European Union has demanded that Turkey change its penal code to ensure freedom of expression, but Turkey has yet to act on those demands.
In the corner of the front page, Pamuk addressed writers directly in a friendly, self-effacing column under the headline, "I was a journalist for Radikal yesterday!"
He said the editorship for a day was a way to realize years of unfulfilled professional dreams, but that he lost all confidence on the way to work at the newspaper's offices.
Pamuk remains a divisive figure in Turkey, where nationalists accuse him of treason for talking about the killings of Armenians and Kurds. He took credit for all the articles that readers didn't like, and gave credit for the articles they did like to the workers of Radikal.
Pamuk's front page also featured an article about a ceremony for Orthodox Christmas in Istanbul. It ran under the headline, "One cross, a thousand police" — a reference to security concerns that surround the Istanbul-based leader of the Orthodox church and Turkey's dwindling Greek Orthodox community.
Nationalists, who are deeply suspicious of the Orthodox church's goals in predominantly Muslim Turkey, have interrupted the Orthodox religious ceremony before.
Other articles on Pamuk's front page dealt with the low percentage of women in politics in Turkey and reactions to the publication of video footage of the execution of Saddam Hussein.
The Associated Press
Brussels must broaden energy alliances
By Daniel Dombey in London
Published: January 9 2007 02:00 Last updated: January 9 2007 02:00
The European Union must bolster its ties with all its energy producing partners to avoid becoming too dependent on any one source, the EU's long-awaited shake-up of energy policy will say on Wednesday.
Although the European Commission's plan does not explicitly spell out Brussels' fears about the dangers of relying increasingly on Russian gas, it calls for the EU to rally round a policy of strengthening ties with alternative producers, particularly with the former Soviet states.
"Energy must become an integral part of all external EU relations," says a draft of the document, which will be presented by José Manuel Barroso, Commission president.
"The EU must therefore develop effective energy relations with all its international partners . . . This means relations broadened in geographical scope and deepened in nature."
The Commission sets outa series of "targeted ini-tiatives", headed by itstroubled attempt to convince Russia to open up its gas market.
It also calls for stronger ties to Norway, a new "strategic energy partnership" with Algeria, the bloc'sthird largest gas supplier, and more extensive EU level contacts with Qatar.
However, the proposal focuses much of its attention on closer ties with central Asia and the Caucasus, including the implementation of recent agreements with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan "to facilitate the transport of Caspian energy resources to the EU".
The draft sets out the ambition of reaching sim-ilar deals with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan this year.
The importance of such suppliers is likely to be bolstered by the scheduled completion of the Nabucco gas pipeline through Turkey in the early years of the next decade.
The EU is also continuing efforts to draw Ankara into a fledgling arrangement to establish common rules for energy in the south-east of Europe.
The paper says the bloc should also link energy policy and development policy by helping bring renewable energy technology to Africa. It also envisages the launch of a high profile Africa-Europe energy partnership "at the highest level" to help with issues such as security of supply.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: January 9 2007 02:00 Last updated: January 9 2007 02:00
The European Union must bolster its ties with all its energy producing partners to avoid becoming too dependent on any one source, the EU's long-awaited shake-up of energy policy will say on Wednesday.
Although the European Commission's plan does not explicitly spell out Brussels' fears about the dangers of relying increasingly on Russian gas, it calls for the EU to rally round a policy of strengthening ties with alternative producers, particularly with the former Soviet states.
"Energy must become an integral part of all external EU relations," says a draft of the document, which will be presented by José Manuel Barroso, Commission president.
"The EU must therefore develop effective energy relations with all its international partners . . . This means relations broadened in geographical scope and deepened in nature."
The Commission sets outa series of "targeted ini-tiatives", headed by itstroubled attempt to convince Russia to open up its gas market.
It also calls for stronger ties to Norway, a new "strategic energy partnership" with Algeria, the bloc'sthird largest gas supplier, and more extensive EU level contacts with Qatar.
However, the proposal focuses much of its attention on closer ties with central Asia and the Caucasus, including the implementation of recent agreements with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan "to facilitate the transport of Caspian energy resources to the EU".
The draft sets out the ambition of reaching sim-ilar deals with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan this year.
The importance of such suppliers is likely to be bolstered by the scheduled completion of the Nabucco gas pipeline through Turkey in the early years of the next decade.
The EU is also continuing efforts to draw Ankara into a fledgling arrangement to establish common rules for energy in the south-east of Europe.
The paper says the bloc should also link energy policy and development policy by helping bring renewable energy technology to Africa. It also envisages the launch of a high profile Africa-Europe energy partnership "at the highest level" to help with issues such as security of supply.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Turkey's parliament speaker urges lawyer who refuses to eat to end protest
ANKARA, Turkey: Turkey's parliament speaker on Tuesday called on a lawyer who has refused food for 265 days in protest of high security prisons to immediately end his protest, promising a review of prison conditions in the new year.
Parliament speaker Bulent Arinc met with family members of Behic Asci, who has been refusing solid foods — but not liquids — since April, 5 to protest conditions in the maximum security prisons, where inmates are kept in one- or three-person cells. Human rights groups say prisoners are sometimes kept in solitary confinement and the cells provide very little opportunity for interaction between prisoners, leaving them isolated and vulnerable.
"Behic Asci must end this struggle which he calls a 'death fast,' that has been continuing for 265 days," Arinc said. "We want this death fast to end so that he may regain his health."
"If this is done, I want to say that in the first week of January, a delegation will work on the issue," Arinc promised.
Asci's mother Fazilet Erdogan however, doubted Arinc's pledge would convince her son.
"My son is as obstinate as I am," Erdogan said. "I don't think he will end the death fast until the isolation (of prisoners) is lifted."
Scores of prisoners or their supporters have died in hunger strikes protesting conditions at high security prisons since October 2000 — when authorities began moving prisoners from large wards housing up to 100 people to one- or three-inmate cells. Authorities said the large wards were unruly and had become recruiting centers for terrorist groups.
The protesters drink tea, sugared and salted water and take minerals to help prolong the strike.
The protest is being led by the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front, or DHKP-C, a banned Marxist group which has claimed responsibility for a number of assassinations and bombings since the 1970s.
Parliament speaker Bulent Arinc met with family members of Behic Asci, who has been refusing solid foods — but not liquids — since April, 5 to protest conditions in the maximum security prisons, where inmates are kept in one- or three-person cells. Human rights groups say prisoners are sometimes kept in solitary confinement and the cells provide very little opportunity for interaction between prisoners, leaving them isolated and vulnerable.
"Behic Asci must end this struggle which he calls a 'death fast,' that has been continuing for 265 days," Arinc said. "We want this death fast to end so that he may regain his health."
"If this is done, I want to say that in the first week of January, a delegation will work on the issue," Arinc promised.
Asci's mother Fazilet Erdogan however, doubted Arinc's pledge would convince her son.
"My son is as obstinate as I am," Erdogan said. "I don't think he will end the death fast until the isolation (of prisoners) is lifted."
Scores of prisoners or their supporters have died in hunger strikes protesting conditions at high security prisons since October 2000 — when authorities began moving prisoners from large wards housing up to 100 people to one- or three-inmate cells. Authorities said the large wards were unruly and had become recruiting centers for terrorist groups.
The protesters drink tea, sugared and salted water and take minerals to help prolong the strike.
The protest is being led by the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front, or DHKP-C, a banned Marxist group which has claimed responsibility for a number of assassinations and bombings since the 1970s.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Turkey and the European Union / The ever lengthening road
Dec 7th 2006 | ISTANBUL
From The Economist print edition
From The Economist print edition
“FIRST they tied our arms, now they are going to tie our legs.” The words of a top Turkish official sum up the gloom in Ankara as European Union leaders prepare for next week's summit in Brussels, where they will once again argue over Turkey. Whatever the outcome, Turkey's prospects of being the EU's first mainly Muslim member have never seemed so bleak.
Turkey's long-delayed membership talks opened almost 15 months ago amid much fanfare. “Hello Europe” read one newspaper headline. But the talks soon ran into trouble over Turkey's rejection of the EU's demand that it fulfil its legal obligation to open its ports and airports to traffic from Cyprus (ie, the internationally recognised Greek-Cypriot republic). The Turks rebuffed a deadline of December 6th, insisting that they will not give way until the Europeans fulfil their own promise to end the trade embargo on Turkish northern Cyprus.
The European Commission has proposed the suspension of eight of the 35 chapters in the membership talks. This week the French president, Jacques Chirac, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, endorsed this plan, and also called for a full review of Turkey's progress in early 2009. “We don't want to set any kind of ultimatums,” said Ms Merkel, who wants Turkey to accept a “privileged partnership”, not full membership. “But we want the commission to say to us what has been achieved and how we could proceed.”
Late into the week, negotiations continued under the Finnish EU presidency. A Turkish offer to open one port and one airport to Cyprus seems unlikely to work as it is clearly dependent on a reciprocal offer by the Greek-Cypriots. If no compromise is found, little progress will be made. Relations will worsen if Nicolas Sarkozy becomes France's president next spring: unlike Mr Chirac, he is fiercely against Turkish membership.
Turkey's hopes are now pinned on the Americans. President Bush is expected to embark on a round of telephone diplomacy this week. He may secure a reduction in the number of frozen chapters. But regardless of their number, suspended chapters can be reopened only with the unanimous approval of all EU members. This “leaves the door open for them to impose further intolerable conditions on us,” comments the top Turkish official.
Most Turks believe that Turkey's detractors simply do not want a large, Muslim country in their midst. Their aim is to wear down Turkey's resistance and induce it to walk away. Yet the mildly Islamist prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, says he will not fall into that trap. “Forcing Turkey to abandon the [negotiating] table would be a dreadful mistake; Europe, not Turkey would stand to lose,” he said this week. He added that Turkey would pursue its membership goal with determination and, moreover, that it had a plan B and C.
Nobody seems to know what such plans might entail, but government sources hint that consultations with the EU over, say, Afghanistan and Iraq, or on drugs and human trafficking, may be slowed down. Instead Turkey will try to repair relations with America that remain fraught over Iraq, especially over the increasingly autonomous Kurds in northern Iraq. It will also build up its role in the Middle East, the Caucasus and the oil-rich former Soviet central Asian countries.
Most Turks believe that Turkey's detractors simply do not want a large, Muslim country in their midst
Cocking a snook at the Europeans could help Mr Erdogan's AK party to win votes in parliamentary elections due next November. Public support for the EU has already dropped to well below 50%, down from highs of 80% or more two years ago. Mr Erdogan will also take heart from the economy, which has grown by an annual average of 7% since 2001, four times as fast as the EU's. The markets seem unfazed by the rows over EU membership; the Turkish lira rose against the dollar this week.
But economic progress hinges on whether Mr Erdogan sticks with his IMF-imposed reforms. It may also depend on whether he decides to become president when the incumbent, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, retires in May. Turkey's militantly secular generals recoil at the thought of both the presidency and the government being run by Islamists. How far they might go to stop this remains a vexing question. The EU membership talks have provided the most effective rein on the generals so far.
Just as ominously, Mr Erdogan's claim that he will continue with political reforms, regardless of what happens over the EU, is beginning to look shaky. Article 301 of the penal code, under which Orhan Pamuk, Turkey's best-known novelist, was prosecuted last year, remains on the books. Human-rights abuses against the country's 14m Kurds have been curbed but by no means stopped altogether.
Meanwhile, Mr Erdogan's tired assertion that rejecting Turkey would provoke a “clash of civilisations” by sending a message to the Muslim world that the EU is a Christian club, is exaggerated. “Turkey has no real connection to the Arab world, so whether Turkey gets into Europe or not doesn't really matter to the ordinary guy in Amman or Riyadh,” says Yusuf Al Sharif, a Palestinian commentator. “There isn't even an Arab cultural centre in Turkey.” Mr Erdogan's overtures to Iran and Syria (he visited both countries this week) have less to do with Muslim solidarity than with a common desire shared by all three to prevent the emergence of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq.
In short, both sides in this dispute need to regain some perspective. Turkey is right to feel cheated over Cyprus (the Greek-Cypriots won EU membership even though they voted in April 2004 against the UN's Annan plan to reunite the island, whereas the Turkish-Cypriots remain isolated even though they voted in favour). But it must also show that it is sincere about pursuing EU-inspired reforms. If the EU is to regain its moral authority with the millions of Turks who long to have a full-blown modern democracy, it needs to prove that membership of its club is not only the best way to achieve that goal—but also one that is still genuinely on offer.
Friday, December 01, 2006
The Turkish train crash
Nov 30th 2006
From The Economist print edition
From The Economist print edition
MELANCHOLY is Istanbul's defining characteristic, writes Orhan Pamuk, Turkey's Nobel prize-winning novelist. And melancholy has now descended on the country's relationship with Europe. “Almost everyone I know has lost heart,” says Soli Ozel, a political scientist at Istanbul's Bilgi University who wants Turkey to join the European Union.
His disenchantment is justified. Turkey's membership talks are on the edge of collapse. The EU gave the Turks until December 6th to open their ports and airports to traffic from Cyprus (ie, the Greek-Cypriot republic). Turkey refuses to do this unless the Europeans lift what amounts to their trade embargo on the (Turkish-Cypriot) north. The current Finnish presidency of the EU has failed to find a compromise. So the only questions now are how many “chapters” in the negotiations will be suspended—this week the European Commission suggested eight out of 35, all related to trade and the internal market—and whether the suspension is handled with enough delicacy by both sides to let them be reopened easily in a couple of years' time.
It was always going to be difficult to get Turkey into the EU. On top of complications arising from its poverty, its mostly Muslim culture and its mistreatment of the Kurds, it would be the largest member, with the most votes in the Council of Ministers and the most seats in the European Parliament. Even so, the accession talks have been unnecessarily fraught.
During the past year Turkey and the EU have squabbled bitterly over Cyprus, over clauses in the Turkish penal code that limit free speech and over a French proposal to make it an offence to deny the Armenian genocide of 1915. These may be real issues, but they have not affected Turkey's Western orientation, as embodied in its NATO membership and its impressive reform programme. The economy is growing by 6-7% a year; Turkey was the first Muslim country to send peacekeepers to Lebanon.
All this suggests that the quarrel is to do as much with the Europeans as with the Turks. In 2005 European political leaders agreed to negotiate Turkish accession in good faith, but it is not clear that all are doing so. Unwilling to admit that they want to keep Turkey out, France, Austria and Cyprus are making demands that seem designed to induce the Turks to walk away.
Now another insidious argument is being aired. Negotiations with Turkey are not merely failing; they are damaging the country's Westernisation. Because of the disputes, Turkish support for joining the EU, which stood as high as two-thirds in 2004, has fallen to only one-third now. Three-quarters of Turks believe the EU will never let their country in. Better, say some, to suspend the talks now, before these squabbles do more harm.
Some add that it will make little difference. The painstaking work of bringing Turkish law into line with EU law has more or less stopped. Talks on suspended chapters cannot restart soon because, over the next 18 months, three elections will get in the way (presidential and parliamentary ones in Turkey; a presidential election in Cyprus). So, the siren voices argue, Turkey would do better to give up now and settle for a privileged partnership instead (this is what Germany's Angela Merkel wants). Turkey's Westernisation need not be halted, just diverted: it began in the dying years of the Ottoman empire, long before the EU was dreamt of, and is thus independent of it. For the Turks, EU membership is not a matter of identity; it is a matter of choice.
But it is a good choice—and the consequence of abandoning it could be more serious than the Europeans realise. The EU goal helps to stabilise several shaky elements in Turkey. For the moderate Islamist government, it offers protection against military intervention. For the army, it guarantees secularism. For business, it entrenches market reform. For Kurds, it promises minority rights. Turkey would not suddenly become like Iran if its membership bid failed. But any of these elements might wobble—and the risk of a clash between the army and Islamists would rise.
Nor is Turkey about to join the axis of evil. But unlike previous applicants, it has options other than the EU: bad ones, perhaps, but alternatives nonetheless. It could flirt with Russia or Iran (as a former army chief has suggested). Or it could become pro-Western in the way that, say, Egypt is.
Pause, don't stop
For the EU, a rejection of Turkish membership would represent a huge lost opportunity. Europe's foreign policy, and its hopes of global significance, would suffer a catastrophic loss of credibility if it were seen to be blackballing a moderate Muslim country that has NATO's second-largest army. The EU's reputation in the Muslim world, which is watching the membership talks with Turkey closely, would sink, perhaps even below America's.
At home, a failure of the talks would send a message to Europe's 15m Muslims: that you have no place in Europe. There are some 3m Turks in Germany. What is the government going to tell them? “You do not belong here. Please do not riot”? The Germans, who have more at stake than anybody else, have been breathtakingly insouciant about the consequences of a failure of Turkey's membership bid. In many ways Ms Merkel's ambivalence has done more to damage Turkey's prospects than the more obvious hostility of France and Cyprus.
If it is bad policy to freeze the negotiations, and impossible to continue them, what is the alternative? At their summit later this month, the EU's leaders will rule on the plan to suspend talks on eight chapters and, unusually, to keep other chapters open until Turkey allows access from Cyprus. This may send a negative signal to Turkey but, given the doubts of many EU members, it may be the best that can be agreed on. The Europeans, however, should put no new obstacles in the way of reopening talks and also exert far more pressure on the Greek-Cypriots to settle the Cyprus problem. Hitting the pause button may be inevitable. But the pause must not turn into an indefinite stop.
Take Cyprus issue out of our talks on joining the EU, insists Turkey
By Martin Wolf
"We oppose the linkage between the negotiations and Cyprus," insisted Ali Babacan, Turkey's minister of the economy and chief neg-otiator with the European Union, in an interview with the Financial Times.
Mr Babacan said Cyprus was a separate issue from Turkey's accession. "Our proposal on the Cyprus issue is to put it to one side in the accession negotiations and deal with it by lifting sanctions on both sides simultaneously.
"But it is impossible for Turkey to open its ports to Cyprus unilaterally. The prime minister has committed himself publicly on this." Moreover, added the minister, "the whole of Turkey is behind the government's stance".
"In 2004," he stressed, "we tried very hard for a settlement of the Cyprus question. We worked out a detailed plan and then, unfortunately, the Greek Cypriots rejected it in a referendum at the instigation of [the Cypriot president] Mr Papadopoulos." Mr Babacan said the EU was not impartial on the issue because Cyprus had joined the Union shortly after the referendum.
"The EU initially decided to end the isolation of Turkish Cyprus, to balance the accession of Cyprus. But the EU has not carried through on its promise. It is unfair to ask Turkey to make a unilateral concession to take goods from Cyprus within the customs union when the EU is not open to northern Cyprus.
"Turkey is a big and relatively poor country and perceived by some to have a different culture. But this is wrong. Turkey shares Eur-ope's fundamental values of democracy and the rule of law."
Mr Babacan said Turkey's macroeconomic performance was also converging with the EU's.
"The ratio of public sector net debt to gross domestic product has fallen from over 90 per cent at its peak to a forecast of just under 50 per cent at the end of this year.
"Next year, Turkey should hit the Maastricht limit of 60 per cent of GDP for the ratio of gross debt to GDP. Turkey should easily hit all the Maastricht treaty criteria for debt, deficits and inflation within a couple of years."
Growth this year was likely to end up at about6 per cent and inflation was likely to be just under 10 per cent, despite the impact of higher energy prices, he said. Next year's inflation target would remain at 4 per cent. Employment growth was also buoyant.
Inward foreign direct investment is forecast at $15bn (€11.4bn, £7.7bn) this year. Inward FDI and long-term credit will cover the current account deficit of about 8 per cent of GDP.
Most Turks still believed EU accession was a good thing, insis-ted Mr Babacan. But they had been shaken by the German discussion of a privileged partnership and the proposed French law banning denial of the massacres of Armenians during the first world war, quite apart from the Cyprus issue.
"The political reaction in Turkey to such European statements and actions ex-p-lains the decline in support for accession," he said.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Turkey and EU held hostage by Cyprus
Some 43 years after beginning its long courtship of Europe and barely a year after opening entry talks with Brussels, Turkey's bid for European Union membership may have just hit a wall.
Olli Rehn, the EU enlargement commissioner who earlier this year warned the talks could end in a "train crash", said this week his measured response to the impasse in the negotiations meant "there will be no train crash". Rather, "there will be a slowing down because of works further down the line; the train will continue to move". Really? Let us hope he is driving.
Mr Rehn's proposal is to suspend negotiations on eight of the 35 chapters of EU law Turkey needs to adopt before it enters the Union. This is, put overly simply, in response to Ankara's refusal to open up its ports to Cyprus, an EU member. It is harsher than Turkey's EU allies - the UK, Spain, Sweden and Italy - wanted, but has delighted politicians in Germany, Austria, Holland and France who think a poor, Muslim country like Turkey has no business inside the EU in the first place.
In either case, there is a distinct possibility that the Turkish government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pressed from all sides but up for re-election next year, will simply walk away.
Irrespective of whether it is any longer realistic to believe Turkey will one day join the EU, that would be a geopolitically catastrophic train wreck.
Europe is the ambition that has held together Turkey's otherwise antagonistic and fiercely secular army with Mr Erdogan's neo-Islamist government, with full but now fast-dwindling popular support. It is also the engine of sweeping reform, especially to en-trench democratic and minority rights. It is, above all, proof that the EU can sponsor a marriage between Islam and democracy, a sort of Euro-Islamism analogous to Christian Democracy that can steer a path to modernity and survive the violent dislocations on the way. Mr Erdogan is leading democratic change in a region where Islamists have at best provided alibis to despots determined to prevent democracy.
The EU put all this at risk by its irresponsible attitude to Cyprus. In advance of a 2004 United Nations plan for a confederal system to reunite the island, the EU gave the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot government a guarantee of entry. While Ankara cajoled Turkish Cypriots to vote for the peace deal, the Greek Cypriots self-indulgently voted against - and now obstruct Turkey from within the EU.
While demanding Ankara admit Cyprus ships and goods, Brussels has not delivered on its pledge to end the isolation of Turkish Cyprus. The Cyprus issue can be resolved if member states are prepared to put the strategic interests of the Union above the narrow interests of the Nicosia government. On present form, however, the EU is now widely seen to have retreated behind a wall of dissembling waffle and to be acting in bad faith.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Thursday, November 30, 2006
EU nations divided over whether to slow Turkey membership talks
BRUSSELS, Belgium: European Union nations were divided Wednesday over whether to partially freeze membership talks with predominantly Muslim Turkey over Ankara's refusal to open its ports to EU member Cyprus.
Diplomats and officials said they were braced for difficult meetings to find consensus between all 25 EU countries before a Dec. 14-15 EU leaders summit, which will decide the fate of Turkey's decades-old membership bid.
"We are in quite a problematic situation," said Sweden's Foreign Minister Carl Bildt. "Opinions are divided on the issue."
Divisions among EU leaders were laid bare after the European Commission recommended partially halting membership talks to protest of Ankara's refusal to extend an agreed-to customs union with Cyprus and nine other countries that joined the EU in 2004.
Prime Minister Tony Blair called it a "serious mistake" to send Turkey a negative message on membership now, and Spain's Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero urged leaders to "work intensively" to keep the EU's doors open to Ankara.
Bildt also criticized the recommendation for going too far and risked destabilizing the region if Europe choses to freeze its ties with Turkey, which many see as a strategic and stable partner in an otherwise volatile region.
"I see a risk they are putting the brakes on too hard," Bildt said. "There is a risk of collateral damage being fairly extensive ... we want to increase the stability in a very volatile part of the world, are these recommendations best geared toward those objectives, that's going to be the debate."
French President Jacques Chirac said France "was in line with Germany and other partners" that the EU "has no other choice" given Turkey's refusal to adopt a customs pact with the EU, which would open Turkish ports to Cyprus — a country that Ankara refuses to recognize.
Denmark's Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen said the EU had to "send a very clear signal" to Turkey that it must live up to its promises on Cyprus and on speeding up what he called the slow pace of reforms there.
"It is Turkey that must adapt to the EU," he said. "It's not the other way around."
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reacted with dismay at the recommendation.
"Such a decision is unacceptable," private NTV television quoted Erdogan as saying during a NATO summit in Latvia.
"We will not allow anyone to trample on our rights," Egemen Bagis, an aide to Erdogan, told NTV. He said Turkish leaders would still try to avert a partial suspension.
A decision by EU governments to slow entry talks would likely cause a rift in relations with Turkey over its bid to join the bloc and potentially damage the EU's image on the world stage. Negotiations started in October 2005.
"We confirm that these negotiations continue, although at a slower pace," EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters. "Failure to meet legal obligations cannot remain without consequences."
Rehn added, however, that Turkey still had time to resolve the standoff over Cyprus and avert a firm EU decision to partially freeze the negotiations.
He said a visit on Friday to Ankara by Finnish Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen, whose country holds the EU presidency, still offered a chance for Turkey to change its mind.
The recommendation, drafted by Rehn, called on EU governments not to open negotiations on issues that touch upon Turkey's relations with Cyprus. These include such issues as the free movement of goods, financial services, agriculture, fisheries, transport policy, customs union policy and external relations issues.
They would officially suspend 8 of 35 so-called policy chapters in the negotiations, which have already effectively been at a standstill since September, after Cyprus, Greece and France blocked further talks until the standoff is resolved.
Such a freeze would significantly slow Turkey's EU membership talks, which already were expected to last at least a decade, and which the EU said offered "no guarantee" of eventual membership.
Rehn also recommended that no chapter of the package could be finalized until Turkey moves to open its ports to Cyprus.
He said he expected his recommendation "will receive wide support," however initial reactions drew doubt on an easy first discussion on the measure by EU foreign ministers next week.
Cyprus, Greece and France have taken a hard line against Turkey in recent months over the standoff, demanding that talks be suspended. Britain, Sweden and Spain are urging that the EU ensure talks are not frozen, fearing a rupture in ties with predominantly Muslim Turkey.
Cyprus has been divided into north and south since Turkey invaded the island in 1974, anticipating an attempt by Greek speakers to forge a union with Greece. The breakaway Turkish Cypriot state in the north is recognized only by Ankara and has been under a crippling international embargo for years.
In 2004, shortly before the island joined the EU, Greek Cypriot voters rejected a U.N. proposal to unify the island while Turkish Cypriots endorsed it.
The continuation of Turkey's EU entry talks had hinged on its readiness to trade with the Greek-speaking part of Cyprus that joined the union in 2004. In exchange, the EU said it would lift an embargo on the northern part of the island.
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