Turkey Inches Toward EU, Clouded by French Objections

By James G. Neuger

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Turkey inched ahead with its bid to enter the European Union, in talks increasingly clouded by French President Nicolas Sarkozy's determination to make sure the country never gets in.
Negotiations started today over aligning Turkey's regulations with the EU in the areas of consumer protection and transport and energy networks. Turkey has now started talks in six of the bloc's 35 policy areas and completed one.
Under French pressure, the EU has shifted the negotiations into a lower gear, a sign of rising opposition in the heart of Europe to letting in a predominantly Muslim country with a standard of living less than a third of the EU level.
``Certain member states are trying to erode our political and judicial position,'' Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan told a Brussels press conference. ``Such attitudes are not proper and do not reflect a responsible approach.''
Turkey has made scant progress toward joining since embarking on the EU entry marathon in 2005. The bloc froze negotiations in eight policy areas last year to punish Turkey for refusing to trade with the Greek-speaking Republic of Cyprus, part of the EU since 2004.
Negotiations in two or three more areas might get under way in the first half of next year, EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said.
Alternative Union
Sarkozy, elected in May on a wave of French anti-Turkey sentiment, says Turkey's place is in an alternative ``Mediterranean Union'' and has vetoed talks in policy areas that would lead directly to EU membership.
``Must Europe enlarge indefinitely and, if yes, what will the consequences be?'' Sarkozy said last week after persuading the EU to set up a blue-ribbon study group that he expects to challenge Turkey's fitness to join.
Only 21 percent of Europeans want Turkey to become a member, according to a September poll by the German Marshall Fund. European attitudes have darkened the anti-EU mood in Turkey, where only 40 percent of Turks think membership would be a ``good thing,'' down from 54 percent last year and 73 percent in 2004, the poll found.
Even Turkish schoolchildren are hearing of the broadsides by Sarkozy and other anti-Turkey politicians in Europe, making it harder for the government to amass support to modernize the economy along EU lines, Babacan said.
`Negative Impact'
Such ``provocations'' stir feelings among Turks ``that they are unwanted, and that in turn has a negative impact on their position toward the EU,'' Babacan said.
Babacan, Rehn and Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amado, the chairman of today's meeting, all backed the ``accession'' process, using the jargon that France forced the EU to strip from the preparatory documents.
Diverging public opinion in Turkey and Europe threatens to breed a ``dangerous situation,'' Amado said.
Rehn, the EU commissioner shepherding the talks, voiced concern that the ``political atmospherics'' between Turkey and EU capitals are damaging the entry process and said the EU needs to be fair to Turkey.
``At the same time, we need to be firm and emphasize conditionality and that's why we encourage Turkey to relaunch the reform process in full,'' Rehn said. As a sign of support for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's EU strategy, the European Commission's president, Jose Barroso, will visit Turkey early next year, he said.
Hammering home a point he often makes in Brussels, Babacan said the Turkish government's plans to upgrade the economy and enhance civil rights won't be blown off course by the souring mood.
EU Subsidies
For example, Babacan said, today's start of talks on linking Turkey's transport and energy networks to the European grid makes Turkey eligible for EU subsidies to upgrade its infrastructure.
Babacan gave no timetable for meeting the EU's demand that Turkey rewrite a section of the penal code that has been used to prosecute authors who challenged the Turkish orthodoxy that that the World War I massacre of Armenians by Ottoman Turks was not genocide. One journalist convicted under the law, Hrant Dink, was later murdered by a teenage nationalist.
Divided Cyprus
The status of Cyprus also remains an obstacle for Turkey. Turkey's military has occupied the northern part of the Mediterranean island since a 1974 invasion in response to a Greek-backed coup.
The dividing line hardened in 2004, when Greek-speaking Cypriots rejected a unification proposal that had the backing of the Turkish side. As a result, Cyprus joined the EU without the Turkish-speaking north of the island, which remains fenced off in the only disputed border in the EU.
Skirmishes between the Turkish army and Kurdish rebels operating out of northern Iraq played no role in today's talks. The conflict with the Kurds didn't come up and Babacan said Turkey isn't relying on military force alone to pacify the border.
An EU statement yesterday called on the Turkish military to exercise restraint, while acknowledging Turkey's right to combat terrorists.
To contact the reporter on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net .

EU hails progress in Turkey talks

By Tony Barber in Brussels
Published: December 20 2007 02:41 Last updated: December 20 2007 02:41
Turkey’s efforts to join the European Union took a modest but measurable step forward on Wednesday when negotiations started on two more of the 35 policy areas that a candidate country must complete to gain membership.
The decision to open talks on consumer and health ­protection, and on trans-European transport, energy and telecommunications networks, was hailed by Olli Rehn, the EU enlargement commissioner. “The EU accession process of Turkey continues and it delivers results,” he said.
Turkey started formal EU membership talks in October 2005 but the EU froze negotiations on eight policy areas last December because of Turkey’s refusal to open its ports and airports to vessels and aircraft from Cyprus.
Turkey opened and provisionally closed one EU negotiating chapter, or policy area, in June 2006 – science and research. Talks on three other chapters – enterprise and industry, financial control, and statistics – were opened between March and June. Mr Rehn said it might be possible for talks in two or three more policy areas to start in the first half of 2008.
Mehmet Simsek, Turkey’s economy minister, said last month that Turkey could meet an essential requirement for EU membership by adopting the EU’s entire body of accumulated law – the so-called acquis – by 2014 “very comfortably”.
However, a new cloud gathered over EU-Turkish relations in May when Nicolas Sarkozy, an opponent of Turkey’s EU aspirations, was elected French president. Mr Sarkozy’s alternative proposal of a “Mediterranean Union”, which would combine various EU and non-EU countries around the Mediterranean Sea, has found few takers in Turkey.
Ali Babacan, Turkey’s ­foreign minister, took an implicit swipe at France’s stance on Wednesday, saying: “Certain member states are trying to erode our political and judicial position. Such attitudes are not proper and do not reflect a responsible approach.”
France agreed to let membership talks open on two new policy areas because it won approval from the EU’s other 26 countries last week for the creation of a “reflection group” to study the bloc’s long-term future. Although the panel does not have an explicit mandate to discuss the EU’s borders, Mr Sarkozy believes the question cannot be avoided.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

Considering Greece and Armenia’s Support of Turkey’s EU Candidacy

Aside from the ongoing drama between the PKK and the Turkish military, a great deal of Turkey’s most recent foreign affairs activity has been tied to its potential accession to the European Union (EU). Most observers of Turkey derive the majority of their analysis of Turkey’s potential EU membership from the stoic proclamations of President Gul or the anti-Turkish rhetoric of President Sarkozy. However, an additional angle from which one can develop further understanding of the EU issue is by exploring the perspective of Turkey’s traditional foes, Greece and Armenia.
This past week featured Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan and Greek Foreign Minister Theodora Bakoyianni exchanging incredibly sugar-coated words concerning Turkey’s EU candidacy and also on the general subject of relations between their two countries. With Greece wholly behind Turkey’s EU bid, Turkey has gained a very valuable source of support given the fact that the relations between the two countries have been historically sour at best.
Some observers consider Greece’s strong support for Turkey’s bid as somewhat inevitable given the growing amount of humanitarian cooperation between the two countries since they were struck by the same earthquake several years ago. Cross-border investment is growing in both directions and young Turks certainly do not harbor the same acrimonious feelings about Greece that their grandparents possess. The recent inauguration of a gas pipeline between Greece and Turkey to serve European markets further highlights the growing strategic connections.
There is no question that the positive momentum that increasingly characterizes the relations of Turkey and Greece is real. While Turkey’s motivations are clear, it is nevertheless important to take a closer look at why Greece has chosen to extend its support. To understand Greece’s motivations in greater depth (and beyond their interest in seeing the Cyprus issue resolved at some point during this century), it is helpful to jump to Armenia in order to consult that nation’s conversation concerning Turkey and the EU. Whether due to the historical issue of the Armenian Genocide or the ongoing Turkish (and Azerbaijani) economic blockade, Armenia’s affairs and future are very much tied to those of Turkey.
While largely unnoticed by the Turkish media, there is a heated debate between Armenia’s long-time former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, and the current president, Robert Kocharian, concerning Turkey’s future in Europe. While both are interested in greater normalization of ties with Turkey, Ter-Petrossian is much more aggressive about pursuing cooperation and dialog. Concerning Turkey’s candidacy for the EU, Ter-Petrossian’s views are quite logical as exhibited in the following article from armenialiberty.org.
“Isn’t it obvious that Turkey’s membership in the EU is beneficial for Armenia in the economic, political and security terms? he added. “What is more dangerous: an EU member Turkey or a Turkey rejected by the West and oriented to the East?“Or what is more preferable? An Armenia isolated from the West or an Armenia bordering the EU? Our country’s foreign policy should have clearly answered these questions a long time ago.”
Ter-Petrossian’s comments are just as applicable to Armenia as they are to understanding Greece’s interest in Turkey becoming a member of the EU. In addition to the regional economic benefits of Turkey joining the EU, both Armenia and Greece are very aware of the value of the horse-and-carrot strategy that the EU has used to prompt Turkey to pursue internal changes. This EU strategy has been implemented in order to force stubborn Turkey to pursue a path that is complimentary to the Western European system of political, economic and social values. Most Turks, in turn, have become embittered by what they see as a series of false promises, which have provoked a dizzying contortion of Turkey’s identity. Both Greece and Armenia could not be more pleased by this painful process and will rue the day that Turkey is no longer tempted to join the European fraternity.
It is of course irrelevant to either Greece or Armenia whether joining the EU is truly the best direction for Turkey. Both nations realize that Turkey would pose a bigger threat to their interests today if Turkey had not been under the EU microscope for roughly the past decade. As long as it continues to seek entrance, the EU will increasingly deny Turkey’s ability to pursue its traditional agendas. It therefore appears likely that Greece and Armenia are hoping to use Brussels as the means for realizing their own historic interests vis a vis their greatest rival.

Understanding both for EU and Turkey

New methods should be undertaken by Turkey, with the help of its friends in the 27-nation bloc, if it is to overcome the obstacles it faces on its way to European Union membership, said participants of a forum over the weekend.
Old prejudices still prevail in modern times, said Italian ambassador to Ankara Carlo Marsili at the forum organized by the Union of Italian Turkish Friendship that brought together Italian and Turkish politicians, businesspeople and members of the press
Marsili said that some Europeans still see Turkey as the historical enemy of Europe. "In the common memory, Turks are seen as the unchangeable enemy of Europe, but while the EU was being founded, Turkey took its place within the partnership mechanisms, “ he said.
“The Ottoman Empire considered itself as European,” said Turkish State Minister Mehmet Aydın.
Aydın said that 80 percent of all the talks on Turkey are based on ignorance and added that those who speak more about Turkey are those who know the least about it.
He emphasized that even if Turkey never joins the 27-member bloc, it will continue to adopt European standards and criteria, and will carry on with the reforms.
Meanwhile Marsili said that eventual membership to the EU is an acquired right of Turkey and not an issue to be renegotiated. He added that the term “privileged partnership” is not acceptable

Turkey's economy

A cloud no bigger than a hand
Dec 13th 2007 ANKARA AND ISTANBULFrom The Economist print edition
The Turkish economy is doing well, but it is also vulnerable

IN 2001 Turkey's president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, flung a copy of the constitution at the prime minister, Bulent Ecevit, helping to plunge the country into its worst financial crisis since the war. This year Turkey has lurched from one political mess to another. In April a top general threatened a coup; an early general election was held in July; in August Abdullah Gul, a former foreign minister whose wife wears an Islamic-style headscarf, became president over the army's objections; then Turkey threatened to invade northern Iraq. Yet, in contrast to 2001, the markets have barely blinked through all the turbulence.
In truth, the economy is far healthier than it was, thanks mainly to a rigid adherence to IMF-prescribed reforms on the part of the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party. Since AK came to power in 2002 GDP growth has averaged 6.6%, inflation has fallen to single digits and foreign direct investment (FDI) has soared. AK's economic record is one reason why it won a sharply increased share of the vote (although fewer seats) in July.
Yet Lorenzo Giorgianni, the IMF's top man for Turkey, rightly says that this strong economic performance should not be taken for granted. Year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter was the lowest for six years, at just 1.5%. The credit crunch and fears of an American recession are curbing investors' appetites for emerging markets. Turkey, with a huge current-account deficit, is especially vulnerable. Negotiations for Turkish membership of the European Union, the prospect of which is an anchor for investor confidence, have soured. The IMF programme itself is due to expire next May and the government has yet to decide whether to renew it.
The current-account deficit is being boosted by a rising energy bill. As manufacturers shift to higher value-added goods, they need costlier inputs. Coupled with an overvalued Turkish lira, all this has served to push up the import bill. In previous years the deficit was financed by hot money, making the economy more vulnerable. Now nearly two-thirds of the deficit is covered by FDI, which may hit $22 billion this year. Metin Ar, president of Garanti Securities in Istanbul, predicts that, with the privatisation of motorways and plans for new energy-distribution networks, FDI could rise to $30 billion next year. “Foreigners are so keen to get a foot into the market that they are happy to pay double, triple the real value of assets.”
With their dizzyingly high profits and much untapped retail potential, Turkish banks look appealing targets. New regulations can require capital-adequacy ratios to be as high as 20%, against the international minimum of 8%. “We don't allow any bank to go below 12%,” says Mehmet Simsek, the economy minister. He adds that the state-owned Halkbank is soon to be put on the block.
Mr Simsek, who was snatched into the job from Merrill Lynch in London, agrees that “markets like external anchors” and concedes that Turkey is not immune to external shocks. Yet he sees no crisis on the horizon. His main task is to push through a social-security reform that is a test of the government's commitment to reform. His biggest bugbear is high labour costs. He provoked an outcry when he complained that Turkey had one of the highest wage burdens among OECD countries. High taxes on labour, plus onerous welfare benefits, are a big obstacle to the creation of new jobs. Unemployment hovers at around 10%.
There is little doubt that Mr Simsek has the will and the brains to do what is needed. Ercan Uygur, an economist who taught Mr Simsek at Ankara University, says he was “one of my best students”. Yet some political observers worry that Mr Simsek, who is only 40, may not have enough clout. Unlike his predecessor, Ali Babacan, now Turkey's foreign minister, Mr Simsek is a newcomer to AK politics. His swift rise has provoked some jealousy within the party.
In truth Mr Simsek cuts an unusual figure in the government, and not only as a former investment banker with an American wife. He was born into grinding poverty in the mainly Kurdish province of Batman. He did not even learn Turkish until he was six. By his own admission, he is more comfortable speaking English. A big Shakira fan, he provoked mirth at a recent cabinet meeting when he misused the word transparan, meaning see-through, while talking about the budget.
Yet for now, at least, Mr Simsek has the full confidence of his prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. And it is Mr Erdogan who calls the shots. The concern is whether it may be Mr Simsek who gets the blame should the economy slow further and foreign investors take fright.

EU urges Turkey to do more on path to membership

BRUSSELS, Dec. 10 (Xinhua) -- Foreign ministers from the European Union (EU) on Monday urged Turkey to conduct further reforms on its path to earning membership of the 27-member bloc.
The ministers acknowledged the ongoing process of revising the Turkish constitution, but stressed that such process should not delay long awaited reforms, "in particular in the key areas of freedom of expression and freedom of religion where Turkey needs to proceed without delay."
During their meeting ahead of the EU summit on Dec. 14, the ministers also called on Turkey to make "significant further efforts" in other areas such as judicial reform, the fight against corruption, minority rights and the strengthening of cultural rights, women's and children's rights, trade union rights and civilian control of the military.
In a statement issued during the meeting, the ministers reaffirmed the need to promptly develop and implement a comprehensive strategy that will guarantee the economic, social and cultural development of Turkey's east and southeast region.
They urged Turkey to "unequivocally" commit to good-neighborly relations and to the peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with the United Nations (UN) Charter.
"In this context, any threat or action which could negatively affect good-neighborly relations and the peaceful settlement of disputes should be avoided," said the statement.
Meanwhile, the ministers expressed their regret that Turkey has not made progress toward the normalization of relations with the Republic of Cyprus.
They urged Turkey to actively support efforts to implement the July 8, 2006 agreement reached between the two sides in Cyprus, in the presence of UN Undersecretary for Political Affairs Ibrahim Gambari, which is aimed at a comprehensive and viable settlement of the Cyprus problem within the UN framework.
The ministers condemned all terrorist attacks and violence in Turkish territory and expressed their solidarity with the Turkish people as well as their support for Turkey's efforts to protect its population and fight terrorism.
In the statement, the ministers regretted the limited progress achieved in political reforms in Turkey, but welcomed the Turkish government's declared intention and renewed commitment in continuing the reform process and addressing the existing shortcomings.
"It (the EU) looks forward to seeing these commitments soon translated into real and tangible actions," said the statement.
"Next year is crucial to further consolidate and implement the EU's enlargement strategy and support the transition process in the Western Balkans," it added.

Turkey's ambitions for EU membership suffer setback

Brussels - Turkey's ambitions to join the European Union suffered a setback Monday after EU foreign ministers, under pressure from France, dropped the term "accession" from a text referring to next week's talks with Ankara. Unlike a similar text approved a year ago, the "Council conclusions on enlargement" text approved by ministers on Monday refers to this month's "Intergovernmental Conferences with Turkey and Croatia" and omits the term "accession" when referring to such talks.
Council sources said the final draft of the text was amended to appease France, whose President Nicolas Sarkozy has emerged as one of the strongest opponents of Turkey's entry into the EU.
Britain and Sweden, which both want Turkey to join the 27-member bloc, are believed to have expressed strong reservations over the approved text.
In their conclusions, ministers also regretted "the limited progress achieved in political reform in Turkey in 2007."
"Significant further efforts are also needed in other areas such as judicial reform, the fight against corruption, minority rights and the strengthening of cultural rights, women's rights, children's rights, trade union rights and the civilian control of the military," the statement said.
Ministers also expressed disappointment over Turkey's failure to make "progress towards normalization of relations with the Republic of Cyprus" and called on Ankara "to unequivocally commit to good neighbourly relations and to the peaceful settlement of disputes" - a reference to the current problems it is facing with Kurdish rebels on its southern border with Iraq.
While ministers also dropped the term "accession" when referring to forthcoming talks with Croatia, the text commended the country "for the overall progress it continued to make in the past year," saying negotiations between Brussels and Zagreb were "on the right track."

Turkish reform seen tied to progress in EU talks

By Evren Mesci
ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey will reform a law the European Union says unfairly restricts freedom of speech when the EU allows its stalled membership talks to resume, Turkish officials said on Friday.
Turkey has been under heavy EU pressure to amend or scrap article 301 of the penal code which makes it a crime to insult "Turkishness", but Ankara is frustrated by French President Nicolas Sarkozy's efforts to block the negotiation process.
Sarkozy opposes allowing Turkey, a large, relatively poor, Muslim country, to join the 27-nation bloc. German Chancellor Angela Merkel this week also reiterated her opposition to Turkey's membership.
"There is full political will to change article 301, that has been decided on, but the details and timing depend on the EU taking certain steps," said a senior government official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"It will be difficult to press the button on new reforms (if no new chapters are opened)."
French diplomats have been fighting backroom skirmishes in Brussels to keep any reference to "accession" or "membership" in connection with Turkey out of an EU foreign ministers' statement next Monday on enlargement policy, EU sources said.
EU ambassadors met for several hours on Friday to try to resolve that drafting dispute but failed to reach agreement, meaning ministers will have to take up the issue on Monday.
Turkey hopes to open talks on at least two more chapters, or policy areas, under Portugal's EU presidency, which ends on December 31.
A meeting to launch negotiations on health and consumer affairs policy and trans-European networks is set for December 18, diplomats said, provided EU leaders agree next week on creating a "reflection group" to study the bloc's long-term future.
The ambassadors provisionally agreed on the bloc's mandate, which does not mention either enlargement, Turkey or the question of where Europe's final borders might lie.
"WIDER REGION"
Sarkozy initially wanted the group to debate the final borders of Europe, but the draft mandate likely to be adopted at a summit next Friday speaks of examining "how the stability and prosperity both of the Union and of the wider region might best be served in the longer term".
In French eyes, it does not prejudge whether Turkey will be in the Union or the "wider region" in 2020-30. Ankara's friends in the EU are fighting to include a reference to "commitments entered into", to underline the bloc has given its word to Turkey that the objective of the talks is full membership.
Brussels says Turkey should press on with reforms regardless of negative comments by Sarkozy and others in Europe. They say progress on reforms will be Ankara's best argument in trying to overcome opposition to its bid.
But France has been blocking the opening of chapters, diplomats say. Some other EU member states, notably Britain, Spain and Sweden, strongly support Turkey's EU drive. Ankara is not seen joining the bloc before 2015 at the earliest.
A Turkish diplomatic source said Ankara may push through another reform sought by the EU before an expected visit to Turkey by Greek Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis in January.
But he said the reform, which would ease property restrictions on non-Muslim religious minorities in Turkey such as the Greek Orthodox community, could hinge on Greece's steps to bolster rights of its own Turkish-speaking Muslim community in the western Thrace region of northern Greece.
In another reform move, Turkey's ruling AK Party signalled on Friday it plans to ease a ban on the wearing of the Islamic headscarf under a new draft constitution.
"This (new) constitution will solve the headscarf problem in a more libertarian spirit," Dengir Firat, a deputy chairman of the AK Party, told CNN Turk television.
The AK party has hinted many times that it wants to modify or if possible remove the headscarf ban, which also applies to government offices.
Turkey's secularists view the headscarf as a symbol of political Islam and a challenge to the country's separation of religion and state.
(Writing by Gareth Jones; Editing by Michael Winfrey)

Turkey flexes diplomatic muscle as economy booms

By Gareth Jones
REUTERS
6:14 a.m. December 6, 2007
ANKARA – The frenetic travel of President Abdullah Gul highlights Turkey's new self-confidence on the global stage as its economy booms and foreign investment pours into the European Union candidate nation.
Gul's election to the presidency in August has reinforced a growing commercial and diplomatic trend to reach out beyond traditional Western partners to Turkic Central Asia, Russia, Iran, the Arab world and east Asia.
Turkey's expanding ties with these regions, often driven by energy needs, should be seen as complementing, not replacing, its decades-old drive to join the EU, analysts say.
Gul, who as foreign minister helped start EU accession talks, has been in Pakistan and Turkmenistan this week, he goes to Kazakhstan next week. He was in France last week and before that in Georgia.
'This new multi-dimensional foreign policy does not come at the expense of our European vocation, but our place in the world is changing,' said Suat Kiniklioglu, a member of parliament for Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's ruling centre-right AK Party.
'We lack the clout to broker big international deals, but we are getting to a point where Turkey is recognised as a player in places like the Middle East and Central Asia,' he said.
Muslim, secular and democratic Turkey – a NATO member that for decades tended to box well below its diplomatic weight – clearly has much to offer, and the world seems increasingly interested in its perspective.
Almost uniquely in its region, Turkey has good relations with both Iran and Israel, for example, and its peacekeepers are active from Kosovo and Lebanon to Afghanistan.
In the past month alone, the foreign ministers of Iran and the United States have rubbed shoulders at a conference of Iraq's neighbours in Istanbul and the Israeli and Palestinian presidents have jointly addressed Turkey's parliament in Ankara.
Erdogan has also cleverly and confidently used threats to send troops into northern Iraq to fight Kurdish rebels hiding there to push President George W. Bush into sharing intelligence with Turkey to help combat the rebels.
Aware of Turkey's strategic importance as an ally in a difficult region, the United States – and the EU – have turned a blind eye to Turkish cross-border strikes against the rebels.
PRAGMATISM
'Turkey is not a prime mover, it is in the second division, but it is being increasingly listened to across the region,' said Hugh Pope, author of books on Turkey including 'Sons of the Conquerors' about the Turks and Central Asia.
'Turkey has shed some of the former arrogance it showed in its dealings with the Middle East and Central Asia,' he said, emphasising the pragmatism and entrepreneurial spirit displayed by Turkish businessmen, engineers and educators in the region.
Ottoman Turks ruled the Middle East, the Balkans and north Africa for centuries from Istanbul.
Turkey's more active diplomacy is not without its problems. The United States, in particular, is vexed by Turkey's growing energy links with Iran, though Ankara has made clear it shares Washington's opposition to Tehran building nuclear weapons.
The Islamist-rooted AK Party is also respected perhaps more in the Arab world than previous Turkish governments because of its Muslim piety as well as its success in overseeing annual economic growth in Turkey of around 7 percent. Gulf Arab money has been pouring into Istanbul. Analysts say Ahmet Davutoglu, Erdogan's chief foreign policy adviser, is the mastermind behind Turkey's growing diplomatic dynamism during the past five years of AK Party rule.
Like Gul, Davutoglu hails from piously conservative central Anatolia but sees no contradiction between Islam and democracy, between Turkey's EU bid and building closer Middle East ties.
EU STILL KEY
Gul's own approach stands in stark contrast to that of his predecessor, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, a shy, ascetic former judge, who rarely left Ankara and had no interest in foreign affairs.
'Gul really wants to make up for lost time and re-engage, especially in Central Asia,' said Kiniklioglu.
Turkey aims to become an energy hub for Caspian and Central Asian oil and gas exports transiting to Western markets. Existing and planned pipelines across Turkish territory, the West hopes, will reduce its reliance on Russian energy exports.
Analysts said Turkey's central foreign policy goal would remain its EU accession negotiations, launched in 2005.
'Europe is still number one priority, there can be no substitutes... More than 50 percent of Turkey's trade is still with the EU,' said Pope.
'Turkey's higher profile on the world stage is directly linked to its EU candidacy... If Turkey repudiated the EU connection, it would frankly lose much of its prestige with other countries. And Gul understands this very well.'

Merkel Says German Christian Democrats Oppose Turkey's EU Bid

By Andreas Cremer
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel said her Christian Democratic Union opposes Turkey's bid to become a full member of the European Union, the first time she has articulated outright opposition to Turkish EU membership.
``We are, have been and will remain in favor of a privileged partnership with Turkey, but we're against full membership in the European Union,'' Merkel said in a speech to the Christian Democrats' annual convention in Hanover today.
Merkel's CDU party has until now said that accession talks between the EU and Turkey mustn't rob Turkey of the eventual possibility of becoming a full member. The CDU is now ``right to clarify'' its opposition, Merkel said.
Turkey has made little headway toward joining the EU since it started membership talks in October 2005. Rising European opposition to admitting the predominantly Muslim nation has triggered a backlash against the 27-nation EU in Turkey. Sixty- eight percent of Germans oppose Turkey's EU entry, according to a Forsa poll on Aug. 10.

Debating Turkey and the EU

ANKARA, Turkey. -- In the past two years, the suburbs of Paris have twice witnessed violent clashes between non-native French citizens and the police. Whether religious and cultural differences or poverty, unemployment and racial discrimination are the root causes of these incidents is open to debate. But what's interesting is that in September 2006, before he was elected president, Nicolas Sarkozy visited Washington and argued that then the first French riot stood as one of the reasons he opposes Turkey's European Union membership.
"[I] have often been asked about the place of Muslims in France, because of concern in the United States," Mr. Sarkozy said at an event organized by the French-American Foundation. "My dear friends, let's be consistent. What's the point of worrying about our ability to integrate Muslims in France or in Europe if at the same time, and just as forcefully, the United States asks us to accept Turkey in Europe? Even if you consider that we have a problem with Islam, in which case, you have to give us time to find the ways and means to create a European Islam and reject an Islam in Europe. But don't then give equal support to the integration of a country like Turkey, with 75 million inhabitants. Consistency is part of the relations between Europe and the United States." Indeed, Mr. Sarkozy's point of view is shared by many Europeans.
It's true that Turkey is becoming more Muslim than European — particularly since the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) took power in 2002. Since then, 2006 the Pew Global Attitudes poll found out that 51 percent of Turks define themselves first as Muslim. Being religious is not the problem, but there is a lack of sincere debate about what exactly scares people when they are faced with Islamic practices taking a role in governmental life. If freedom of religion is measured by allowing headscarves in governmental buildings, would it also consider new interpretations of those practices by others? Or whether AKP's understanding of secular government is consistent with European secular rule?
Mr. Sarkozy is right to say that he needs time to "find the ways and means to create a European Islam." But it is also a fact that Europeans allowed political Islam in Turkey to make headscarves the one and only problem with freedom of religion; now, it's time they look deeper into the issue. Turkey's most trusted public opinion survey group, KONDA, led by Tarhan Erdem, yesterday announced the results of a new survey that shows a significant rise in numbers of covered women. According to this survey, in the last four years, there are a million more Turkish women wearing headscarfwhile the ones with turban, which is a sign of political Islam has quadrupled.
Unfortunately, Turkey's secular and liberal elites have denied the role of religion in public life in such a way that they have created a huge mess by not investing in theological education to allow an open-minded approach to matters — understanding what Islam means in the modern world, rather than a strictly literal interpretation. There are a limited number of those theologians, but they are not enough to change a traditionalist mindset.
AKP's insistence on traditionalist practices like the headscarf stands as proof that it refuses to allow open debate on religious interpretations. Mr. Sarkozy may have strange bedfellows with respect to his concerns about Turkey's EU membership; secular Turks may also be worried about their future.
If the AKP is proud that Turkey has opened accession talks with EU on its watch, it is now disinterested in moving forward with reforms of governmental institutions. The European Commission reported "limited progress" in Turkey's political reform process.
According to the Pew Global Attitudes poll, the EU's favorability rating in Turkey dropped from 58 percent in 2004 to 27 percent in 2007. There are a number of thorny issues in Turkey's relations with the EU — including Cyprus, the Armenian genocide allegations and the Kurdish dilemma. Yet not all of the EU's issues are related to those matters. And while the AKP is determined to keep Turkey on track to join the EU, it is sending a number of paradoxical signals. These raise concerns, as the AKP is a relatively new party and it is almost impossible to judge how its rule will affect Turkey. The Turkish scenery, however, looks in absolute chaos for the time being.
Against all the odds it seems that Mr. Sarkozy understands that Turkey's Westernization process is not only limited to its borders and its politicians' responses; it is very much a European project. Yet he may take a more constructive approach in dealing with Turkey. Still, although Mr. Sarkozy said he would end Turkey's accession talks with the EU when he was elected, he has done no such thing. Yet he continues to express his opposition loud and clear, which is only fair it represents the sincere opinion of some of the European population. But the outgoing and the incoming EU presidents, Portugal and Slovenia, continue to express full support to Turkey's membership.
Tulin Daloglu is a freelance writer.

Turkey warns on 'dilution' of EU goal

By Tony Barber in Brussels

Turkey warned France on Wednesday against trying to bury its aspirations to European Union membership by manipulating a "wise men's committee" that is expected to pronounce on Europe's long-term future.
Mehmet Simsek, Turkey's economy minister, also re­affirmed his government's promise to remove an obs­tacle to Turkish entry by changing a much-criticised article of the penal code that makes it a crime to insult Turkish national identity.
Mr Simsek's remarks amounted to a forceful assertion of Turkey's rights as an official candidate for EU membership and of its readiness to take politically difficult measures to achieve its goal.
"Purely technically, in terms of adopting the acquis [the EU's body of accumulated law], I think Turkey can do this by 2014 very comfortably," Mr Simsek said. "But we don't really have an entry date in mind, and what is importantis that we keep the process alive. We hope that common sense will prevail."
Mr Sarkozy's proposal for a "wise men's committee" of 10 to 12 people to study the EU's future up to 2020 or 2030 is expected to win approval from fellow EU leaders at a summit in Brussels next month.
Some EU states, such as Austria and France, oppose Turkey's entry, even though accession talks started in October 2005. Angela Merkel, chancellor of Germany, the EU's biggest country, says she would prefer a "privileged relationship" with Turkey to full membership.
EU countries sympathetic to Turkey, such as Sweden and the UK, want the committee's members to be carefully chosen and its mandate to be precise, so that it does not turn into a vehicle for critics of Turkey.
Mr Simsek made clear in no uncertain terms that Turkey would accept no recommendation from the "wise men" involving a privileged EU relationship, partnership in a French-proposed Mediterranean Union, or anything else short of full EU membership.
"We cannot accept dilution of the commitment to Turkey. Dilution sends an extremely poor message," Mr Simsek told a meeting of the European Policy Centre think-tank.
Referring to the association agreement that Turkey signed in 1963 with the European Economic Community, the EU's forerunner, Mr Simsek said: "We waited in the anteroom for 40 years. Trying to find a way to dilute the commitment doesn't serve French interests."
Mr Simsek said the ruling Justice and Development party was strong enough after its comfortable election victory in July to amend Article 301 of the penal code, a step that the European Commission said this week should be a precondition of Turkish entry into the EU.
"My government would like to amend it, and we will. But I'd like to highlight that it's easy to change legislation but it takes a long time to digest the changes and to change the mentality," he said.
"More importantly, we'd like to make fundamental changes that would secure these freedoms in a more fundamental way. Things don't happen overnight," he added.
Discussing a recent spate of attacks on Turkish targets by the separatist Kurdish PKK movement, Mr Simsek said Turkey preferred not to launch a military incursion into northern Iraq, but stressed that it remained an option.
"If there is a military incursion, it will be aimed purely at rooting out terrorists on Iraqi soil. It will be limited in scope," he said.
Copyright The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved

Ban on free speech keeping Turkey out of EU

David Charter in Brussels
A growing number of prosecutions against writers and academics is damaging Turkey’s case to become a fully fledged member of the European Union, an annual assessment report said yesterday.
The country has made little progress in the past year and its failure to end torture, improve minority rights or guarantee freedom of expression were all highlighted as significant stumbling blocks to EU membership.
Britain joined the European Commission in arguing that only the offer of full membership would bring real reform inside Turkey, but President Sarkozy Sarkozy of France, has led calls for the Muslim nation of 71 million to be offered only associate membership.
Olli Rehn, the Enlargement Commissioner, signalled a battle with those who want to end Turkey’s hopes of membership, however, declaring: “Conditionality only works if the EU respects its own commitment to the prospect of accession. Without this, we can always demand reforms but this would be as if we were speaking to the wall.”
Population growth would probably make Turkey the EU’s largest member if it joins, as it hopes, by 2020, and give the Community borders with Syria, Iran and Iraq. But there are many hurdles yet to overcome, the European Commission’s progress check said.
One of the key demands was for the repeal of Article 301 of the Turkish penal code, which makes it a crime to insult Turkish identity. The article has been used to prosecute the Nobel prize-winning author Orhan Pamuk and the murdered journalist Hrant Dink for commenting on the killings of Armenians by Turks in the early 20th century.
The report cautioned: “The prosecution and conviction for the expression of non-violent opinions under certain provisions of the Turkish criminal code are a cause of serious concern. The number of persons almost doubled in 2006 compared with 2005 and there was a further increase in 2007. The Turkish legal system does not fully guarantee freedom of expression in line with European standards.”
Mr Rehn added: “It is not acceptable that writers, journalists, academics and other intellectuals . . . are prosecuted for simply expressing a critical but completely non-violent opinion.”
Yielding to pressure from the EU Mehmet Ali Sahin, the Turkish Justice Minister, said last night that a new Bill repealing Article 301 would be put before Parliament in the coming days.
“Several drafts have been prepared in line with proposals by civic groups. The Cabinet will discuss them at first opportunity, select one and submit it to parliament,” Mr Sahin told Anatolia news agency. Other issues remain outstanding, however. The EU repeated demands that Ankara normalise relations with Cyprus and honour a 2005 agreement to open its ports and airports to the EU member.
The pace of reforms had slowed since Turkey’s membership negotiations opened two years ago. “Cases of torture and ill-treatment are still being reported, especially during arrest and outside detention centres,” it added.
It commended the Turkish Government for solving a constitutional crisis before President Gül was elected this year, but said that the military still exerted “significant political influence”.
In the southeast of the country: “Turkey needs to create the conditions for the predominantly Kurdish population there to enjoy full rights and freedoms.”
Mr Rehn would not be drawn on the consequences for Turkey’s membership ambitions if it invaded Iraq to quash Kurdish separatists.
Wider community
EU enlargement candidate countries Croatia The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Turkey
Potential candidates Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Montenegro Serbia Kosovo (under United Nations Interim Administration Mission)
Source: European Commission

Pace of Turkey's reforms slowing down, EU progress report says

BRUSSELS, Belgium: The European Union will urge Turkey on Tuesday to press ahead with reforms crucial for its bid to join the bloc, singling out freedom of expression, democratic oversight of the military and rights for Kurds as key areas where more progress is needed.
In an annual report on the progress in Turkey's membership bid, the EU's executive Commission will also repeat that Ankara must normalize its relations with Cyprus and honor a 2005 pact to open its ports and airports to the island republic.
The pace of reforms "has slowed down" since Turkey's membership negotiations opened two years ago, and "significant further efforts are needed" in the crucial areas, said a draft of the report seen by The Associated Press.
The talks stalled last year when the EU froze negotiations on eight out of 35 policy areas, because of Turkey's refusal to open its ports to trade with Cyprus, an EU member since 2004. But EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn said last month that negotiations in two new areas could be opened "in the coming weeks."
On Tuesday, Rehn planned also to present reports on the efforts of six Balkan nations to join the EU.
The draft report on Turkey commends the country's government on solving a constitutional crisis earlier this year, but says the military — which has vowed to safeguard Turkish secularism — still exerts "significant political influence." The draft report calls for a better civilian oversight of the armed forces.
Abdulah Gul, a former foreign minister in Turkey's Islamic-oriented government, was elected president in July after months of confrontation with the secular establishment, with the military threatening to intervene when Gul was first nominated for the post.
The draft report says serious concerns remain over freedom of speech restrictions, particularly Article 301 of the Turkish penal code that make it a crime to insult Turkish identity or the country's institutions.
Nobel Prize-winning author Orhan Pamuk and slain ethnic Armenian journalist Hrant Dink are among those who have been prosecuted under the controversial article.
The report also mentions the need to improve religious and cultural rights for non-Muslims, but it lauds Turkey's economic reforms.
The 27-nation EU is divided over whether Turkey, a mainly Muslim country of 71 million, should one day join the EU. The prospect faces opposition from some member states, such as France or Austria, and the accession talks are expected to last at least a decade.
Turkey is under intense pressure from the EU to allow Greek Cypriot planes and vessels to use Turkish ports and airports, but Ankara has said it would not agree to any concessions on Cyprus until the EU keeps to a promise to end the isolation of Turkish Cypriots.
Cyprus has been divided between a Greek Cypriot south and a Turkish-occupied north since 1974, when Turkey invaded after an abortive Athens-backed coup by supporters of union with Greece
The European Parliament said last month that Turkey's refusal to comply with the commitments made when it opened its accession talks with the EU would seriously affect the negotiations.

Why Turkey Matters

Turkey’s increasing significance is arresting the world’s attention. Here’s why it should arrest yours. By Joel Hilliker

Suddenly, Turkey is all over the headlines.
Most Americans would tend to underestimate its significance. But why, in the midst of October, did an outburst of public discussion center on whether to call the World War i-era Turkish killing of Armenians a “genocide”? Why did Congress raise the issue, and why did the White House scramble to squelch it?
The crux of debate rested on the potential for losing Turkey’s help in the war in Iraq. Its role as vital supply route for U.S. troops took center stage. In fact, some analysts suggested that the Democrat-led Congress pushed the “genocide” issue to alienate Turkey in an underhanded effort to spite the president and torpedo the Iraq war.
Is it really possible that this nation—about which few Americans concern themselves—could make the difference between victory and defeat in Iraq?
Who knew Turkey was so important?
At the Crossroads
The instant clamor surrounding that single issue is a meaningful symbol of just how much this historically pivotal nation is rising again to prominence in modern geopolitics.
Turkey sits right at the crossroads of a developing clash of civilizations. Its population is almost wholly Muslim, but its constitution is staunchly secular. It is a democracy and a constitutional republic, yet since 1960 its military leaders have overthrown four duly elected governments for being too religious. It is anchored to the Middle East as a member of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, yet welded to the West within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. On top of that, a pillar in its foreign policy for a generation has been its bid for membership in the European Union.
The U.S. is not alone in trying to come to grips with this complex geopolitical puzzle. Nations across the globe are coming to see that, for all its contradictions, and after decades of quiet since the Ottoman Empire collapsed at the end of World War i, Turkey is shaping up to be an extremely significant global player. As the world increasingly fractures into regional blocs—the United States, the Middle East, Europe, Asia—Turkey remains a distinct entity whose value to all of these powers is rapidly rising.
This exceptional position, which we can witness developing right before us, appears to be setting Turkey up perfectly for the unique role it plays in end-time biblical prophecy.
Why the World Is Taking Note
Turkey is attracting interest for a number of reasons.
First, its economy is on fire—it is one of the fastest-growing on Earth. Since 2002, under the leadership of the Justice and Development Party (akp), the economy has transformed. It is now the largest Muslim economy, and the largest in the region. Turkey is a member of the G-20, a gathering of the world’s 20 largest economies. It is playing its cards wisely, reducing restrictions on trade with Muslim states while simultaneously cultivating relationships with European and other nations.
As Dr. George Friedman put it, “The ability of Greece, Armenia, Syria, Iraq and Iran to remain hostile to Turkey decreases as the Turkish economy grows. Ideology and history are very real things, but so is the economic power of a dynamic economy” (Stratfor, July 31).
Of course, a large Turkish economy means a large Turkish military. Already it is nato’s second-largest armed force after the U.S., with over 1 million uniformed personnel. This reality has several ramifications regarding the balance of power in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Second, Turkey is comfortably stepping into a ready-made role as a vital energy hub linking Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia.
This is one of the most geographically strategic countries in the world—a literal bridge between continents. On its west, Turkey borders Greece and Bulgaria—EU nations; on its south, Syria, Iraq and Iran—Middle Eastern Muslim states; and on its east, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan—former Soviet republics. It connects to the Mediterranean, Black and Aegean seas, and encompasses the vital Bosporus and Dardanelles sea gates, linking Central Asia to the Mediterranean. In a world increasingly driven by energy politics, its unique location translates into valuable energy transit routes for more and more nations.
With Russia aggressively taking over global oil and natural gas markets, uncomfortable customers, particularly those in Europe, are actively seeking energy from other sources. Turkey is in the right place at the right time, with major oil pipelines being built across its soil, circumventing Russian territory altogether. It is proving itself a worthy middleman for energy from not only former Soviet republics Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, but also Iraq and Iran. In addition, Turkey, in conjunction with foreign investors and companies, is building new oil refineries that will increase its worth even more. Analysts say the nation’s refining capacity should double within only a few years.
This reality seems tailor-made to suit Ankara’s foreign-policy interests, because the entity hungriest for non-Russian energy happens to be the very one Turkey has been working so hard to pretty itself up for: Europe.
Naturally, the whole situation also deeply concerns Russia, whose monopolistic energy tendencies are undercut by Turkey’s activities. On top of that, Russia is robustly fighting a strong Islamist incursion on its southwestern border, particularly against Muslim separatists in Chechnya—and it possesses proof that Turkey has financially supported and trained Chechen terrorists in their struggle for independence.
A third reason for Turkey’s growing relevance—as became abundantly evident in October—is its role in the unfolding drama surrounding the future of Iraq.
A Strained Alliance
The Iraq war has created bad blood between the U.S. and Turkey. The Turks have long struggled with a restive Kurdish population in their southeast region, driven by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (pkk). This terrorist group seeks to carve an independent Kurdish state out of territory in southeast Turkey, as well as parts of Syria, Iraq and Iran. Whatever differences these four nations have, they are united in their determination to stop Kurdistan from materializing.
The fact that the U.S. empowered the Iraqi Kurds by eliminating Saddam Hussein rocked the American-Turkish alliance. In 2003, Ankara simply refused to let the U.S. invade Iraq from Turkish territory—a major snub from a nato ally. Add to that a turning of the historic tables: With a growing economy and military, Turkey simply isn’t as dependent on the U.S. as it once was. In fact, since the U.S. has gotten entrenched in Iraq, it has come to depend deeply on Turkey: 70 percent of its Iraq-bound air cargo and 33 percent of its fuel passes through Turkey, and it heavily uses the Incirlik Air Base for refueling operations and cargo flights to both Iraq and Afghanistan.
The upshot is, Turkey feels very comfortable with ignoring Washington’s wishes and doing what it feels it must to protect its own interests.
Recent events highlight just how monumental this change is.
In an October attack, pkk rebels killed 13 Turkish soldiers; the people of Turkey angrily demanded retaliation. The government bombed and shelled northern Iraq, and then the parliament approved plans to launch a ground invasion.
All this fuss puts the U.S. in an awkward spot. The Kurdish north has been the most stable part of Iraq since Saddam Hussein’s ouster in 2003, and Washington would rather nothing upset that. Supporting Turkey could well alienate the Kurdish allies the U.S. has built there, and the whole situation may further destabilize Iraq—something U.S. and Iraqi leaders are desperate to avoid.
But the amazing thing is, the Turks just don’t care. “We don’t need anyone’s advice on northern Iraq and the operation to be carried out there,” Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said. Reuters reported that the crowd in Istanbul cheered this pronouncement, and cheered again when he said that the U.S. “came tens of thousands of kilometers and attacked Iraq without asking anyone’s permission.”
Amid these developments, the timing couldn’t have been worse for the U.S. congressional committee’s “genocide” resolution. Turkey bristled at the news, recalling its ambassador in the U.S. and threatening to close its doors to American troops. Anti-American demonstrations spilled into the streets, according to the Jerusalem Post. “All prospects look bad … and relations with the U.S. have already gone down the drain,” Turkish foreign policy expert Semih Idiz said.
The White House responded by going into full damage control mode: It issued public statements condemning the measure, it essentially apologized to Turkey’s leaders, and it finally convinced Congress to kill the resolution. The fervor of the response revealed just how desperately the U.S. needs Turkey’s cooperation in order to resolve the crisis in Iraq in a manner suited to its own national interests. But the U.S. isn’t the only country in that situation. So is the other primary external player in this theater: Iran.
An Islamic Shift
In practical terms, as Washington contemplates reducing its presence in Iraq, its primary concern is to try to prevent Iran from simply taking over—not just Iraq but virtually the entire Middle East. In Turkey, it sees the closest thing it has to a regional counterbalance to Iran.
Unfortunately, it so happens that all this friction between Ankara and Washington has strengthened Turkey’s historically wary relationship with Iran.
Something else that could strengthen this relationship—and markedly change the balance within several of the precarious situations in which Turkey plays a role—occurred on August 28, when Turkish parliamentarians elected a former Islamist as president.
The new president, Abdullah Gül, is a bit of a puzzle. He was a cabinet member in one of the Islamic governments the military ousted in the 1990s—yet he has been a leading supporter of his nation’s EU membership bid. His devotion to Europe certainly placates the nation’s generals and military commanders, but his religion still chafes against their fierce loyalty to the secularist ideals institutionalized in 1923 by the nation’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. His political party, the akp, has an Islamist pedigree and maintains pan-Islamic ties throughout the region. Turkey’s secularist military suspects that it retains a masked Islamist agenda.
Stratfor noted that, because the president chooses judges and hence dominates the judiciary, having Gül as president means that “for the first time since the founding of the Turkish republic more than 80 years ago, a political force rooted in Islamism essentially controls all of the key civilian institutions of the state” (August 29, emphasis mine). Stratfor expects the akp to seek to use its new power as a beachhead to move the nation away from secularism and toward the freer expression of religion in public life; it anticipates drama ahead as the akp is forced “to balance pan-Islamic issues with Turkish nationalist objectives” (ibid.). Though this analysis probably overstates how much Turkey will change under President Gül, we would not be surprised to see the nation proceed with a more sympathetic economic and foreign policy toward the leading Arab and Muslim energy producers in the region.
Any shift within Turkey away from secularism and toward Islam could help alter the balance of power in the Middle East—most notably, in favor of Iran.
A Nightmare for Israel?
In 1996, Turkey inked a mutual defense deal with Israel that, for years, analysts credited with contributing to the relative stability of the region. The Islamic Affairs Analyst went so far as to say that Israel’s enemies respected Turkey enough that the Jewish state’s national survival was all but assured as long as the deal stood.
Events in the past couple of years, however, have shown that whatever deterrent effect Turkey once had has already weakened to some degree: Iran and Syria have unleashed forces in Lebanon and within Israel against the Jewish state with few qualms. But, given Turkey’s new Islamic leadership, this trend could get worse.
Any further weakening of Turkey’s restraining influence on Iranian power is a nightmare for Israel, which Iran has committed itself to eliminating.
Tensions between Washington and Ankara over Iraq have already opened a door for the Islamic Republic. Suspicion between Turkey and Iran has thawed in recent years, and ties have improved. The fact that Turkey is now ruled by a Muslim—albeit Sunni—rather than a secularist certainly doesn’t hurt.
The more cooperative these two nations are, the more latitude the Turks are likely to give Iran without feeling directly threatened as Tehran pursues its regional ambitions.
Watch for that cooperation to increase—and for Iran to become even more brazen.
Unrequited Love
What does Turkey get out of the deal? If nothing else, it gets Iranian energy—energy it can pass on to Europe.
The two countries have just completed an oil pipeline that will pump 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day into Turkey. And the Turkish Petroleum Corp. has announced plans to invest $3.5 billion in Iran’s South Pars natural gas field. This project would include building the means to transport Iranian gas through Turkey to Europe. The U.S., though flatly opposed to the deal, can do little to stop it.
Ultimately, even under an Islamic president, it appears Europe is who Turkey most wants to please. Ankara simply sees Iran as a workable partner in increasingly procuring the energy that Europe desperately wants. Radio Free Europe reports that for decades to come, Iranian gas may be Europe’s most viable source of non-Russian gas. Nothing Turkey could do would strengthen its value to the EU more than its growth as an energy hub.
Even the slippage in Turkey’s relationship with the United States is driving it more toward Europe, according to Semih Idiz. Speaking of the Iraq crisis, Idiz said, “Having its relations with the U.S. ‘electrified,’ Ankara will be more and more eager to grab hold of the EU anchor” (Turkish Weekly, September 1).
President Gül has strongly emphasized his intent to forge ahead with plans to join the European Union, plans that will require further economic reforms and constitutional amendments. His ally, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, also from the Justice and Development Party, has outlined a five-year program to increase individual freedoms, further boost the economy, and, above all, strengthen the nation’s case for EU membership.
Biblical prophecy indicates, however, that although Turkey will remain committed to its romance with Europe, all these efforts are doomed to fail—just as they always have.
Turkey’s Image Problem
From the time Atatürk himself famously admonished his countrymen to “turn toward Europe,” Turkey has labored, to varying degrees, to cast itself in the image of the West. For the past decade, it has worked overtime.
Still, for every obstacle Turkey hurdles, the EU throws up another. Since 1987, when Turkey applied for full membership, 15 other states have cut to the front of the line and been accepted: Austria, Finland, Sweden, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania. The Turks have watched the Union swell from 12 states to 27, while they remain peering through the window from the outside.
Now, the prospect of becoming an energy bridge to the Continent has inflamed Turkey’s hopes of finally convincing the EU to return the love.
Those hopes are wasted. Try as it may to overcome it, Turkey clearly has an image problem among Europe’s decision makers—and even its voters. Just this year, France elected a president—Nicolas Sarkozy—who campaigned on opposition to Turkish EU membership.
Why? Why is Europe so opposed to considering Turks European citizens? Only one major issue separates Turkey from all the other nations being granted their pass into the Union: religion.
The fundamentally Roman Catholic continent simply has no intention of incorporating 70 million Muslims in one swoop. And Turkey—with its Ottoman history, which at one time threatened Catholicism’s very existence—has particularly negative associations in European minds. As Bernard Lewis expresses it, “[T]here is still a reserve of mistrust, and even at times of hostility [toward Turks], with roots deep in the European Christian past” (From Babel to Dragomans).
The election of an openly Islamic president has only solidified Europe’s unspoken yet inflexible resistance to embracing Turkey. Still, given this nation’s growing strategic value to Europe, watch for the EU to continue to dangle carrots and incentives to keep the Turks onside. And as Europe grows in power in the time ahead, Ankara’s devotion to the European cause will only grow along with it.
Thus, Turkey is destined to remain suspended between worlds—always searching, ever more desperate to please.
A Shocking Betrayal
These trends become far more significant in light of the Bible’s description of Turkey’s place in end-time events. It is only with the revelation of God’s Word that we can understand why Turkey truly matters.
The biblical prophecies regarding events in the Middle East are clear: A Muslim-Jewish war is about to erupt—initiated by Islamic forces clearly unrestrained by Turkey or anything else. That conflagration will trigger a series of events leading to the Second Coming of Jesus Christ.
When the Muslims move to sack Jerusalem, it will provoke a united European bloc of nations to intervene. This bloc will set up armies around Jerusalem—appearing like a “peacekeeping force”—but quickly transforming into a deadly war machine (Luke 21:20). It won’t be just Arabs or Muslims that suffer at their hands; this European power will turn its full force on the nations of Israel—including America and Britain. This horrifying double-cross is discussed in Ezekiel 23. Many in the Jerusalem area will be trapped!
The Prophet Obadiah recorded an extraordinary prophecy about “Edom,” whose modern descendants are the Turks. (Request a free copy of the Trumpet’s December 1997 article “Turkey: An Act of Revenge!” for a detailed explanation of this prophecy.) It shows how Turkey, possessing the escape route via land—the Cilician Gates mountain pass—will actually betray those Israelis, Americans and British who are trying to escape, delivering them into the hands of their conquerors. This is one last act, true to present form, of Turkey attempting to curry favor with Europe!
The description of these events reveals several things that illuminate the meaning of present-day headlines.
One, the fact that those escapees look to Turkey strongly indicates that Turkey’s alliances with the U.S. and with Israel will remain, at least in name.
Two, the betrayal may mean we can expect still more friction to develop within these alliances, like that which has arisen over the “genocide” question and the Kurd condition in Iraq. Though the U.S. still enjoys the support of Turkey’s secularist military, anti-Americanism is rampant and growing within Turkish media and among the Turkish people—a fact that the U.S., as desperate as it is to retain Turkey’s help, is willing to overlook.
Three, for Turkey, relations with Europe will continue to trump all other foreign-policy considerations.
Thus, based on biblical prophecy, in the end the Trumpet expects recent events that have thrust Turkey into the headlines only to cement the unique position this nation already occupies in modern geopolitics. They may tax Turkey’s agreements with the U.S. and Israel, but will not destroy them. They may increase Turkey’s cooperation with Muslim states, shifting the balance of power in favor of Iran, but that cooperation will fall short of a full-scale alliance. And most importantly, they will strengthen Europe’s resolve to keep Turkey at arm’s length, but do nothing to diminish Turkey’s undying resolve to get into Europe’s bed.
And as Obadiah’s prophecy reveals, that nation’s willingness to do anything to serve this ambition—including betrayal—will lead to its ruin.

EU easing tone with Turkey, while still seeking reforms

STRASBOURG (AFP) -- The European Commission and parliament signaled a new more positive strategy for EU-hopeful Turkey, swapping threats for encouragement, while still seeking political reforms.
""The Commission shares the basic approach of the parliament, which is to identify challenges and to encourage Turkey to meet these challenges,"" EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said during a debate in the Strasbourg chamber. The new mood was exemplified when members of the European Parliament decided not to explicitly call on Ankara to recognize the Armenian genocide of 1915, merely calling on both sides to engage in ""a process of reconciliation"". Rehn indicated that his annual report on Turkey's progress towards the EU, to be delivered on November 6, would be ""objective and fair"". Last year's very critical version led to the freezing of eight of the 35 policy chapters which EU candidate nations must successfully negotiate prior to membership. Since Ankara began talks with the European Union in October 2005, the talks have been severely hampered by Ankara's refusal to deal normally with EU member Cyprus -- which is split into Greek and Turkish sectors. Turkey has managed to open just four accession chapters, only one of which has been satisfactorily completed. That figure pales next to the 14 chapters opened with Croatia, which began its EU talks at the same time as Turkey. However, in keeping with the encouraging tone, Rehn announced that ""at least two chapters could be open in the coming weeks,"" despite French President Nicolas Sarkozy's repeated suggestion that Turkey does not culturally belong in the European Union. Rehn said both the EU and Turkey had ""to do what they've got to do"". ""That means when we are firm we also must be fair, we have to keep our word and stick to accession perspective,"" he said. The EU change of tone follows a popular vote in Turkey on Sunday which approved sweeping constitutional reforms. The reforms provide for the head of state to be elected by popular suffrage for a once-renewable five-year term, instead of being chosen by parliament for a single seven-year mandate. It also sets legislative elections every four years instead of the current five. ""The Commission welcomes the fact that the government has put the constitutional reform at the top of its agenda with a view to improving democracy and expanding individual freedoms,"" said Rehn. ""However this should not result in any postponement of reforms that are urgently needed today,"" he added. High on the EU's reform wish list is the infamous Article 301 of Turkey's penal code. This outlaws insults on ""Turkish identity"" and has led to criminal charges against dozens of intellectuals. The EU's executive arm also insists on improvements on religious freedoms, military control of civil authorities and the fight against corruption. Turning to more urgent matters, the EU's Portuguese presidency urged Turkey to think twice before launching military action in northern Iraq, following deadly attacks on Turkish troops from Kurdish rebels in the region. ""It's important that the international community supports Turkey in its efforts to counter terrorism, in respect of the law, without risking the stability of the region and the whole continent,"" Portuguese European Affairs Minister Manuel Lobo Antunes told the European parliament in Strasbourg. However for the EU, Cyprus remains the elephant in the room and no matter how far Turkey comes along the membership road it won't be able to join the club until that problem is sorted. So far Ankara refuses to respect the protocol which extended Turkey's customs union with the EU to the 10 nations which joined the bloc in May 2004 -- including the divided island of Cyprus.

Black Turks on the offensive —Ijaz Hussain

Many analysts believe that the real reason for the Turkish army’s unrelenting hostility towards the AKP lies less in its desire to protect secular values and more to guard its own powers and privileges, which it sees under attackThe newly elected Turkish President Abdullah Gul is persona non-grata for the Turkish army whose chiefs refused to extend him the protocol he deserved as commander-in-chief of the armed forces or as president of the Republic. For example, they were absent from his swearing in ceremony in the Parliament and failed to greet him at the Victory Day parade. They treated his wife and that of the prime minister no differently as they refused to invite them to the state functions. Analysts explain the snub in terms of the army’s suspicion of the AKP leaders’ commitment to secular values on which the Turkish Republic is founded and its belief that the AKP is working on the Islamist agenda. What does this tug of war portend for Turkey?The Turkish army that claims to be the guardian of the constitution has always suspected the Islamists of promoting their political agenda. It has a long history of overthrowing such governments, the last being that of Necmettin Erbakan in 1997. The army has not forgotten that President Gul was a minister in the Islamist government of Erbakan and supposedly made statements in the past against secularism and in favour of political Islam. This is compounded by the fact that his wife wears a headscarf, which symbolises Islamist outlook. According to the Turkish army, the case of Gul’s former boss and the head of the AKP Prime Minister Erdogan is no different; he, too, was an ardent follower of Erbakan, whose hands he would kiss with reverence. The army also blames Erdogan for making statements critical of secularism and favourable to political Islam. It cites, in particular, the poem in which he compared minarets with bayonets, domes with helmets, mosques with barracks and believers with soldiers and for which he received a prison sentence in addition to being banned from active politics.The AKP leaders now claim that they have changed; that they have renounced their Islamist past and are now firmly committed to the secular orientation of the Republic. The Turkish army is, however, not convinced of their claims. It believes that the leopard has not changed its spots and that the AKP leadership is merely engaged in the well-known Islamic practice of dissimulation (takiyye), hiding its true intentions and would show its true colours at an appropriate time. It refuses to consider the fact that, unlike Erbakan, the AKP leadership has worked for Turkey’s entry into the EU which would never accept an Islamist country; and that a section of the liberal electorate that voted for the AKP in the recent general elections accepts the party’s credentials. Many analysts believe that the real reason for the Turkish army’s unrelenting hostility towards the AKP lies less in its desire to protect secular values and more to guard its own powers and privileges, which it sees under attack. They cite in this regard the example of the National Security Council (NSC) through which the army used to impose its will on the Parliament and the government; the AKP leadership in its earlier stint in office successfully ensured that the NSC was transformed into a toothless body. They also cite the AKP’s reported intention to get the army-imposed 1982 constitution, which is the source of most of the powers and privileges that the army currently enjoys, replaced by a “civilian” constitution.The AKP has not yet revealed details of the proposed constitution as it is still working on it. However, the salient features that have appeared in the press are sufficient to scare secularists including the pashas (read: the army) as it puts their vested interests in jeopardy. For example, the proposed constitution envisages reforming the judiciary and the universities the secularists dominate. Similarly, it would require the head of the armed forces to report to the defence minister rather than the prime minister, which is the case presently. Again, it proposes to remove the exemption that rulings of the high military board currently enjoy from judicial review. The AKP intends to submit the final document to public for referendum, which it can only win if it enjoys support across the board including that from the liberals. How are secularists including the army likely to respond to the challenge?It is undeniable that secularist forces are terribly upset with the new development. This is evident from the fact that even before the ‘draft constitution’ sees the light of the day they are up in arms against it. For example, the Turkish daily Radikal rhetorically asks, “why is the “civilian” constitution being hidden from the civilians?” The Republican People’s Party, the main opposition secular party, has equated the move as a conspiracy to dismantle the secular principles of the Republic and has therefore pledged to resist it. Given the deep divisions within the Turkish society, it appears as if the coming battle on the constitution may be nothing short of an Armageddon. Though the army must be terribly upset with the AKP move, it would be hard for it to intervene for two reasons. First, the AKP enjoys popular support of 47% of the electorate that voted for it in the general elections (including a large section of liberals. With this kind of support, the pashas would think twice before moving. Secondly, the AKP enjoys unwavering EU support for the proposed change as the latter has been suggesting repeal or amendment of a large number of articles of the constitution to bring them in conformity with its own standards. The army knows that any action against the Erdogan government would not go down well with Brussels and would spell disaster for Turkey.Does the adoption of the “civilian” constitution augur well for Turkey? The secularists including the army do not think so because, in their opinion, it would erode the principle of the separation of state and religion, downgrade the army and foment ethnic divisions, particularly in the Kurdish southeast. These fears are largely unfounded because the real reason for the army’s opposition is its desire to perpetuate its hold on power through scare tactics. Nor is the fear of the Islamists dismantling secularism and introducing the Sharia rule warranted because the ever-vigilant Western world and domestic public opinion would never allow it to happen. Already the prediction that the Islamists’ first election is the last one has proved wrong, as the AKP has held second general elections. Whereas the incubus of Islamist threat is largely unfounded, the proposed change promises to be immensely beneficial for Turkey. The Kemalists have very little knowledge of the West or the true meaning of secularism. Their secularism is essentially anti-religion and imitates external Western forms while refusing to incorporate the core Western values of tolerance, liberalism and democracy in their worldview. The militant secularism they profess has divided the Turkish society into “white” and “black Turks”: the former have appropriated most of the powers and privileges while the latter have been left disenfranchised. The “civilian” constitution promises to bring about a paradigm shift in the power structure and rectify this imbalance by providing a level playing field to the both. The writer is a former dean of social sciences at the Quaid-i-Azam University. He can be reached at hussain_ijaz@hotmail.com

Islamists won't follow Turkey's lead

Can Turkey's Justice and Development Party become a model for the ideal marriage between Islam and democracy that could be replicated in the Middle East?
Some Muslim intellectuals, politically correct commentators in the West and officials from the European Union seem to think so. They argue that the recent election of Abdullah Gul as president of Turkey and the success in parliamentary polls last July of his AK Party (as it is known in Turkey) are sound reasons to believe that a party comprised of Islamists can hold free elections, win at the polls and then run a state that is democratic and secular.
This presumption, however, rests upon the false belief that Turkey is much like the rest of the Islamic world and that all Islamists are similar to the leaders of the AK Party. For one thing, AK Party leaders should not be identified as "Islamists." As Gul declared during his acceptance speech: "Secularism, one of the basic principles of our republic, is a rule of social peace."
Islamists in most Muslim societies do not favor a secular state. In Jordan and Egypt, for example, unofficial Islamist parties and movements are fighting for Shariah, Islamic law, to be the guiding light for governing. Shariah-based governance, in fact, has been one of the foundations of opposition movements against authoritarian rulers in the Arab world for the last 30 years.
And it is not only the Islamists who are advocating Islamic law. The majority of Muslims surveyed in Arab countries, and in other Muslims societies, say they prefer that Islamic law be either a source, or the sole source, of legislation. By contrast, according to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, support for Islamic law in Turkey has never exceeded 20 percent.
As far back as 1981, President Anwar Sadat of Egypt tried to appease his country's Islamists by revising the Constitution to mandate Shariah as the primary source of legislation. Islamic law has never been enforced, however, and today this has become one of main battle cries of the Muslim Brotherhood, the main opposition to Egypt's governing National Democratic Party.
Although many moderate Islamists in the Middle East admire the AK Party's success, the way ahead for them is far more difficult. The vast historical differences between Turkey and the region's other countries also have to be taken into account.
The AK Party was born out of the more ideological Welfare Party, but then evolved to become more in line with Turkey's secular tradition. By contrast, secularism in the Arab world peaked in the 1950s and 60s, then came to a halt with the Six Day War of 1967. The Arabs' humiliating defeat by Israel inspired the rise of political Islam, which has grown in influence since then.
If Islamists came to power in many Arab states they would likely ban alcohol, homosexuality and pornographic images on the Internet and in film. For years, Islamists have complained about the millions of bikini-clad foreign tourists who frequent beach resorts in Arab countries, even though tourism helps keep their beleaguered economies afloat.
In addition, Arab societies have transformed over the last 30 years and are far more religious than Turkish society, even though an increasing number of Turks are embracing Islam in ways unseen since the Ottoman Empire.
Even if the Islamists in the Arab world had every intention of emulating Turkey's secular-style of government, they still would have to answer to the growing influence of religious authorities. These range from the scholars at Al-Azhar University in Cairo, the 1,100-year-old seat of learning for Sunni Islam, to respected clerics in mosques and institutions stretching from Saudi Arabia to Qatar who have followers across the Arab world.
Religious authority in Turkey has always been part of the state structure, unlike in the Arab world, where religious scholars and imams have been free to interpret Islamic doctrine at will. Sheiks at Al-Azhar and religious scholars in the Gulf have been at odds over a range of fatwas, from whether the 9/11 attacks on the United States were justified to whether female circumcision is an Islamic duty or simply a cultural tradition that began in Africa and was adopted in Arab society.
By contrast, the state's control over Islamic interpretation has a long history in Turkey, one that continues today.
In forging his country into a secular state, Kemal Ataturk did not allow Islam to become a basis for opposition movements, as happened in the Arab world after the Muslim Brotherhood was created in 1928. Instead, the Turkish state institutionalized Islam by controlling the message and the messenger - only imams licensed by the state are allowed to preach in mosques - making interpretations of the faith subject to state approval.
Policy makers and pundits in the United States and Europe should not rush to judgment by assuming that the Turkish model can be applied elsewhere. Just as the Islamic world is not monolithic, so too will Islamic-style democracy vary in each country, should it develop at all.
Geneive Abdo, a fellow at The Century Foundation, is the author of several books on contemporary Islam, most recently "Mecca and Main Street: Muslim Life in America After 9/11."

A new Turkey?

The no-alternative secular ideology of Ataturk appears shattered at last in Turkey, writes Hassan Nafaa*
Current political developments in Turkey are significant in more than one way. On Thursday 28 August, Abdullah Gul walked into the presidential palace. He did not do so as a guest who, by secular laws, cannot bring his veiled wife along, but rather as president of the state. Army commanders refused to give him the due military salute for a new president, but this hardly dampened his victory. For the first time since the fall of the Ottoman Empire, Turkey has an Islamic-leaning president.
The "secular" regime established by Ataturk following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire was unusual in that it didn't evolve from a democratic process. Secularism in Turkey was a tool of denigrating and expunging religion, not just enforcing a separation between church and state. Initially, Ataturk contemplated keeping the caliphate as a religious institution with Vatican-style status, but the power struggle that developed during the liberation stage finally prompted him to dissolve the caliphate and its affiliate institutions, ban Sufi chapters, and strike out the constitutional provision stating that Islam was the official religion of the state.
Because such measures were taken in the absence of political pluralism and under a one party system, Turkish secularism became imbued with a tyrannical streak and got more obstinate as time went by. But despite the initial insistence of the ruling party on uprooting religion altogether, Islamic traditions managed to creep back for cultural as well as political reasons.
A few years before he died, Ataturk formed the Academy of History and Social Science in order to promote nationalist ideas. But this research institution soon found itself delving into an Ottoman past that cannot be examined in isolation from Islam, eventually becoming a bastion for the preservation of Islamic culture. When Ataturk died, the political system allowed some restricted pluralism to develop, and that provided a chance for the expression of Islamic sentiments. When a liberal group led by Adnan Menderes split from the ruling party, it advocated an end to anti-Islamic measures and to all legal restrictions on Muslim rituals.
The authoritarian implementation of secular slogans lasted in Turkey for a long time, creating a mood of cultural alienation as well as an identity crisis among various social groups, especially the middle and working classes. Public pressure for greater religious freedom encouraged the creation of Islamic- leaning political parties. The first such party was Necmeddin Erbakan's National Order Party, established in 1970.
Political Islam is more recent in Turkey than in other Arab and Islamic countries and yet more successful. Why is that? One can think of a few reasons. First, the harshness with which the army dealt with Islamists boosted their popularity. The army, which acts as a guardian of secular values, carried out four military coups in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997. The first coup brought down the government of Menderes, who was then executed for violation of secular laws. In 1997, the army deposed the government of Erbakan and disbanded his Refah Party. This excessive use of force, along with the ineptness and corruption of secular parties, increased public sympathy for the Islamists.
Second, Turkey's Islamists exhibited credible moderation, refusing to resort to violence or impose their opinion on others. The political and intellectual discourse of the Islamists became more moderate with time, and with every crisis the Islamists came out stronger. The policies of the Justice and Development Party (JDP) are a case in point. The JDP made a serious attempt to reconcile the Islamic heritage of Turkey with its European affiliations. Internally, the JDP adopted a modernist approach that accommodated religious sentiments. Externally, it maintained an independent approach without antagonising anyone. So although Turkey is a NATO member, the JDP refused to let US troops go into Iraq from Turkish territories in 2003. The strategic cooperation agreement Turkey has with Israel didn't prevent the JDP from forging close relations with Palestinian and Arab parties. And while defending Turkey's vital interests in Cyprus, the JDP pressed for membership in the EU.
Third, Turkey's Islamists maintained their unity in the face of hardship. Each time their parties awere banned, they created new ones. So the National Order Party became the Salvation Party, then Refah, then Virtue, and finally Justice and Development. Those constant changes didn't lead to a split within the ranks of the Islamists. Add to this the decay of secular parties due to corruption or stagnation and you'll see why the Islamists grew in popularity over time. In the 1973 election, Erbakan won 12 per cent of the vote with his Salvation Party. In 2002, Erdogan won 34 per cent of the vote with his JDP, then 47 per cent in the recent elections. Now the JDP is the main party in Turkey and for the first time ever it controls both the legislative and executive branches.
Can the JDP use its current political and constitutional power to rebuild Turkey's political and social life? Can the JDP make Turkey a solid and modern democracy? Can it help Turkey come to terms with its history and get over the political schizophrenia of the past? Or will its adversaries, especially the army, succeed in turning back the clock?
I believe that the JDP has a fair chance of succeeding, for the following reasons. First, the army has lost much of its credibility and is therefore unable to intervene in politics in the same way it did before. A reform process that started under Ecevit and continued under Erbakan saw the National Security Council (NSC) restructured and its power curbed. The NSC is now made up of nine civilians (instead of four) and five officers. Its secretary-general is a civilian who answers to the prime minister. NSC decisions are no longer binding on the government and can be challenged by parliament.
Second, secular Turkish parties, including leftist ones, have lost much of their popularity due to their opportunism and flagrant support for despotism and fascist nationalism. Ironically, the JDP seems to be the one political power that can be trusted to defend both liberal democracy and social justice in Turkey.
Third, there is a growing need, both regionally and internationally, to build up the Turkish model of Islamic moderation as an alternative to Iranian fundamentalism and so-called Sunni extremism. Many in Europe and the US believe that an assault on the Turkish model would ignite Islamic militancy in the region. Look at how France's Sarkozy changed his mind about Turkey's joining the EU after the recent Turkish elections.
This doesn't mean that a new, modern, stable and democratic Turkey is around the corner. There are many external factors that can change the situation drastically in Turkey, including President Bush ordering a strike on Iran. Should this happen, the Turkish army may regroup and try to reclaim its lost power, throwing the entire country into the realm of the unknown.
* The writer is a professor of political science at Cairo University.

LOOK BEYOND 9/11 TO FIND MIDDLE EAST ANSWERS

WASHINGTON -- As the sixth anniversary of the tragic attacks of 9/11 approach next week, we need to move beyond grieving, hating -- and fighting -- and look for deeper answers to the profound cultural, political and economic reasons behind those attacks. I think we may find some of them in the surprise election to the Turkish presidency last week of a man described by the nation's secular traditionalists as one of the "Islamists" the West so fears.

There are few who would congratulate me on such an insight. In fact, among many Europeans and the many Turks who follow the historic road of the great Kemal Ataturk, who first made a modern country out of Turkey by isolating politics from religion in the 1920s, the election of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as president is a frightening event.
Gul's party, the Islamist Justice and Development Party, with its threatening Islamic roots that it has largely risen beyond, still deeply worries many who cannot get past the idea that the party REALLY wants to establish a fundamentalist Islamic state. Now, with the prime ministership held for nearly five years by the party's cosmopolitan Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the presidency held by Gul, they fear anything can happen. And if it could happen in modernized Turkey, well, then it could happen anywhere in the Middle East!
But let me go out on that proverbial limb and suggest that it is, to the contrary, likely that the changes in Turkey offer some answers to the deeper problems of the Middle East. Essentially these are problems of governance, which in practice means balancing and resolving the demands of political power and religious power. They happen also to be the problems -- whether in Saudi Arabia or Egypt or elsewhere -- that led to 9/11 and that haunt us daily in Iraq.
The newly elected Gul, to start with, is no cave-dwelling Muslim fundamentalist. He is an attractive man in Western dress with a doctorate in economics, and with study in London and Exeter and work with the Islamic Development Bank in Saudi Arabia behind him. As foreign minister, he became known for pushing for Turkey to join the European Union, for changes in a law that punished writers for "insulting Turkishness," and for devising a set of democratic reforms.
But most important, Gul's party, under Erdogan's leadership, has brought the country to an impressive new prosperity with an Islamic entrepreneurial class that springs from the formerly rigidly conservative hinterlands. It is centered around the new industries of the city of Kayseri, where, amazingly, an Islamic middle class has been created for the first time in Turkish history.
When a small group of us met with Prime Minister Erdogan last May, he said with passion: "This is a very different country today. It has become an open society. To use an Internet expression, it's a state on a 24-hour basis, an online country, an island of prosperity and stability. Our GNP has gone from $182 billion in 2002 to $400 billion by 2006, and the per capita income has risen in those four years from $2,600 to $5,500.
"Turkey is determined to become a full member of the European Union. ... In Europe, we find the harbinger of the possibility of the alliance of civilizations. Our goal is to become a responsible modern society, and we are a people who have totally internalized democracy."
There has been little reason over the last five years to doubt such statements. But now the Justice Party holds both the prime ministership and the presidency, and that gives it extraordinary powers that it did not have before -- and no one can be absolutely sure how its officials will use those powers.
Before, the cities of Turkey were filled with secular cosmopolites who would be at home anywhere in the world, while the poor and benighted of the countryside dragged hopelessly behind. But today, the formerly isolated and fearful countryside is taking part in that entrepreneurial progress -- and not only in Turkey.
In progressive Tunisia, for instance, development is moving so rapidly (again, across class and religious lines) that poverty is now below 2 percent.
In troubled Pakistan, as The Wall Street Journal just reported, "a clear demonstration of confidence in the country's future is coming from an emerging economic force: entrepreneurs." Americans hear little about Syria except for its support of terrorism, but in fact, entrepreneurship is also thriving in Syria. Even Iran, which the White House sees as unidimensionally bad, is in the middle of a profound struggle between the past and a progressive modernism favored overwhelmingly by the young.
America sees little in the Middle East except the war in Iraq. Yet it is in these other countries that we pinpoint the true and ultimately decisive struggles: bringing the traditionally conservative countryside of the past peacefully into the modern world of the cities, blending the world of religion peacefully with the secular world, and building equity for all in societies formerly dominated by the few.
And so, six years after 9/11, even while we fight a war in Iraq that fails to address these issues, at least we should understand the contours of the crucial question: Can you be modern and Muslim? Turkey may again provide some answers.