Thursday, December 20, 2007

Turkey Inches Toward EU, Clouded by French Objections

By James G. Neuger

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Turkey inched ahead with its bid to enter the European Union, in talks increasingly clouded by French President Nicolas Sarkozy's determination to make sure the country never gets in.
Negotiations started today over aligning Turkey's regulations with the EU in the areas of consumer protection and transport and energy networks. Turkey has now started talks in six of the bloc's 35 policy areas and completed one.
Under French pressure, the EU has shifted the negotiations into a lower gear, a sign of rising opposition in the heart of Europe to letting in a predominantly Muslim country with a standard of living less than a third of the EU level.
``Certain member states are trying to erode our political and judicial position,'' Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan told a Brussels press conference. ``Such attitudes are not proper and do not reflect a responsible approach.''
Turkey has made scant progress toward joining since embarking on the EU entry marathon in 2005. The bloc froze negotiations in eight policy areas last year to punish Turkey for refusing to trade with the Greek-speaking Republic of Cyprus, part of the EU since 2004.
Negotiations in two or three more areas might get under way in the first half of next year, EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said.
Alternative Union
Sarkozy, elected in May on a wave of French anti-Turkey sentiment, says Turkey's place is in an alternative ``Mediterranean Union'' and has vetoed talks in policy areas that would lead directly to EU membership.
``Must Europe enlarge indefinitely and, if yes, what will the consequences be?'' Sarkozy said last week after persuading the EU to set up a blue-ribbon study group that he expects to challenge Turkey's fitness to join.
Only 21 percent of Europeans want Turkey to become a member, according to a September poll by the German Marshall Fund. European attitudes have darkened the anti-EU mood in Turkey, where only 40 percent of Turks think membership would be a ``good thing,'' down from 54 percent last year and 73 percent in 2004, the poll found.
Even Turkish schoolchildren are hearing of the broadsides by Sarkozy and other anti-Turkey politicians in Europe, making it harder for the government to amass support to modernize the economy along EU lines, Babacan said.
`Negative Impact'
Such ``provocations'' stir feelings among Turks ``that they are unwanted, and that in turn has a negative impact on their position toward the EU,'' Babacan said.
Babacan, Rehn and Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amado, the chairman of today's meeting, all backed the ``accession'' process, using the jargon that France forced the EU to strip from the preparatory documents.
Diverging public opinion in Turkey and Europe threatens to breed a ``dangerous situation,'' Amado said.
Rehn, the EU commissioner shepherding the talks, voiced concern that the ``political atmospherics'' between Turkey and EU capitals are damaging the entry process and said the EU needs to be fair to Turkey.
``At the same time, we need to be firm and emphasize conditionality and that's why we encourage Turkey to relaunch the reform process in full,'' Rehn said. As a sign of support for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's EU strategy, the European Commission's president, Jose Barroso, will visit Turkey early next year, he said.
Hammering home a point he often makes in Brussels, Babacan said the Turkish government's plans to upgrade the economy and enhance civil rights won't be blown off course by the souring mood.
EU Subsidies
For example, Babacan said, today's start of talks on linking Turkey's transport and energy networks to the European grid makes Turkey eligible for EU subsidies to upgrade its infrastructure.
Babacan gave no timetable for meeting the EU's demand that Turkey rewrite a section of the penal code that has been used to prosecute authors who challenged the Turkish orthodoxy that that the World War I massacre of Armenians by Ottoman Turks was not genocide. One journalist convicted under the law, Hrant Dink, was later murdered by a teenage nationalist.
Divided Cyprus
The status of Cyprus also remains an obstacle for Turkey. Turkey's military has occupied the northern part of the Mediterranean island since a 1974 invasion in response to a Greek-backed coup.
The dividing line hardened in 2004, when Greek-speaking Cypriots rejected a unification proposal that had the backing of the Turkish side. As a result, Cyprus joined the EU without the Turkish-speaking north of the island, which remains fenced off in the only disputed border in the EU.
Skirmishes between the Turkish army and Kurdish rebels operating out of northern Iraq played no role in today's talks. The conflict with the Kurds didn't come up and Babacan said Turkey isn't relying on military force alone to pacify the border.
An EU statement yesterday called on the Turkish military to exercise restraint, while acknowledging Turkey's right to combat terrorists.
To contact the reporter on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net .

EU hails progress in Turkey talks

By Tony Barber in Brussels
Published: December 20 2007 02:41 Last updated: December 20 2007 02:41
Turkey’s efforts to join the European Union took a modest but measurable step forward on Wednesday when negotiations started on two more of the 35 policy areas that a candidate country must complete to gain membership.
The decision to open talks on consumer and health ­protection, and on trans-European transport, energy and telecommunications networks, was hailed by Olli Rehn, the EU enlargement commissioner. “The EU accession process of Turkey continues and it delivers results,” he said.
Turkey started formal EU membership talks in October 2005 but the EU froze negotiations on eight policy areas last December because of Turkey’s refusal to open its ports and airports to vessels and aircraft from Cyprus.
Turkey opened and provisionally closed one EU negotiating chapter, or policy area, in June 2006 – science and research. Talks on three other chapters – enterprise and industry, financial control, and statistics – were opened between March and June. Mr Rehn said it might be possible for talks in two or three more policy areas to start in the first half of 2008.
Mehmet Simsek, Turkey’s economy minister, said last month that Turkey could meet an essential requirement for EU membership by adopting the EU’s entire body of accumulated law – the so-called acquis – by 2014 “very comfortably”.
However, a new cloud gathered over EU-Turkish relations in May when Nicolas Sarkozy, an opponent of Turkey’s EU aspirations, was elected French president. Mr Sarkozy’s alternative proposal of a “Mediterranean Union”, which would combine various EU and non-EU countries around the Mediterranean Sea, has found few takers in Turkey.
Ali Babacan, Turkey’s ­foreign minister, took an implicit swipe at France’s stance on Wednesday, saying: “Certain member states are trying to erode our political and judicial position. Such attitudes are not proper and do not reflect a responsible approach.”
France agreed to let membership talks open on two new policy areas because it won approval from the EU’s other 26 countries last week for the creation of a “reflection group” to study the bloc’s long-term future. Although the panel does not have an explicit mandate to discuss the EU’s borders, Mr Sarkozy believes the question cannot be avoided.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

Monday, December 17, 2007

Considering Greece and Armenia’s Support of Turkey’s EU Candidacy

Aside from the ongoing drama between the PKK and the Turkish military, a great deal of Turkey’s most recent foreign affairs activity has been tied to its potential accession to the European Union (EU). Most observers of Turkey derive the majority of their analysis of Turkey’s potential EU membership from the stoic proclamations of President Gul or the anti-Turkish rhetoric of President Sarkozy. However, an additional angle from which one can develop further understanding of the EU issue is by exploring the perspective of Turkey’s traditional foes, Greece and Armenia.
This past week featured Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan and Greek Foreign Minister Theodora Bakoyianni exchanging incredibly sugar-coated words concerning Turkey’s EU candidacy and also on the general subject of relations between their two countries. With Greece wholly behind Turkey’s EU bid, Turkey has gained a very valuable source of support given the fact that the relations between the two countries have been historically sour at best.
Some observers consider Greece’s strong support for Turkey’s bid as somewhat inevitable given the growing amount of humanitarian cooperation between the two countries since they were struck by the same earthquake several years ago. Cross-border investment is growing in both directions and young Turks certainly do not harbor the same acrimonious feelings about Greece that their grandparents possess. The recent inauguration of a gas pipeline between Greece and Turkey to serve European markets further highlights the growing strategic connections.
There is no question that the positive momentum that increasingly characterizes the relations of Turkey and Greece is real. While Turkey’s motivations are clear, it is nevertheless important to take a closer look at why Greece has chosen to extend its support. To understand Greece’s motivations in greater depth (and beyond their interest in seeing the Cyprus issue resolved at some point during this century), it is helpful to jump to Armenia in order to consult that nation’s conversation concerning Turkey and the EU. Whether due to the historical issue of the Armenian Genocide or the ongoing Turkish (and Azerbaijani) economic blockade, Armenia’s affairs and future are very much tied to those of Turkey.
While largely unnoticed by the Turkish media, there is a heated debate between Armenia’s long-time former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, and the current president, Robert Kocharian, concerning Turkey’s future in Europe. While both are interested in greater normalization of ties with Turkey, Ter-Petrossian is much more aggressive about pursuing cooperation and dialog. Concerning Turkey’s candidacy for the EU, Ter-Petrossian’s views are quite logical as exhibited in the following article from armenialiberty.org.
“Isn’t it obvious that Turkey’s membership in the EU is beneficial for Armenia in the economic, political and security terms? he added. “What is more dangerous: an EU member Turkey or a Turkey rejected by the West and oriented to the East?“Or what is more preferable? An Armenia isolated from the West or an Armenia bordering the EU? Our country’s foreign policy should have clearly answered these questions a long time ago.”
Ter-Petrossian’s comments are just as applicable to Armenia as they are to understanding Greece’s interest in Turkey becoming a member of the EU. In addition to the regional economic benefits of Turkey joining the EU, both Armenia and Greece are very aware of the value of the horse-and-carrot strategy that the EU has used to prompt Turkey to pursue internal changes. This EU strategy has been implemented in order to force stubborn Turkey to pursue a path that is complimentary to the Western European system of political, economic and social values. Most Turks, in turn, have become embittered by what they see as a series of false promises, which have provoked a dizzying contortion of Turkey’s identity. Both Greece and Armenia could not be more pleased by this painful process and will rue the day that Turkey is no longer tempted to join the European fraternity.
It is of course irrelevant to either Greece or Armenia whether joining the EU is truly the best direction for Turkey. Both nations realize that Turkey would pose a bigger threat to their interests today if Turkey had not been under the EU microscope for roughly the past decade. As long as it continues to seek entrance, the EU will increasingly deny Turkey’s ability to pursue its traditional agendas. It therefore appears likely that Greece and Armenia are hoping to use Brussels as the means for realizing their own historic interests vis a vis their greatest rival.

Understanding both for EU and Turkey

New methods should be undertaken by Turkey, with the help of its friends in the 27-nation bloc, if it is to overcome the obstacles it faces on its way to European Union membership, said participants of a forum over the weekend.
Old prejudices still prevail in modern times, said Italian ambassador to Ankara Carlo Marsili at the forum organized by the Union of Italian Turkish Friendship that brought together Italian and Turkish politicians, businesspeople and members of the press
Marsili said that some Europeans still see Turkey as the historical enemy of Europe. "In the common memory, Turks are seen as the unchangeable enemy of Europe, but while the EU was being founded, Turkey took its place within the partnership mechanisms, “ he said.
“The Ottoman Empire considered itself as European,” said Turkish State Minister Mehmet Aydın.
Aydın said that 80 percent of all the talks on Turkey are based on ignorance and added that those who speak more about Turkey are those who know the least about it.
He emphasized that even if Turkey never joins the 27-member bloc, it will continue to adopt European standards and criteria, and will carry on with the reforms.
Meanwhile Marsili said that eventual membership to the EU is an acquired right of Turkey and not an issue to be renegotiated. He added that the term “privileged partnership” is not acceptable

Friday, December 14, 2007

Turkey's economy

A cloud no bigger than a hand
Dec 13th 2007 ANKARA AND ISTANBULFrom The Economist print edition
The Turkish economy is doing well, but it is also vulnerable

IN 2001 Turkey's president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, flung a copy of the constitution at the prime minister, Bulent Ecevit, helping to plunge the country into its worst financial crisis since the war. This year Turkey has lurched from one political mess to another. In April a top general threatened a coup; an early general election was held in July; in August Abdullah Gul, a former foreign minister whose wife wears an Islamic-style headscarf, became president over the army's objections; then Turkey threatened to invade northern Iraq. Yet, in contrast to 2001, the markets have barely blinked through all the turbulence.
In truth, the economy is far healthier than it was, thanks mainly to a rigid adherence to IMF-prescribed reforms on the part of the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party. Since AK came to power in 2002 GDP growth has averaged 6.6%, inflation has fallen to single digits and foreign direct investment (FDI) has soared. AK's economic record is one reason why it won a sharply increased share of the vote (although fewer seats) in July.
Yet Lorenzo Giorgianni, the IMF's top man for Turkey, rightly says that this strong economic performance should not be taken for granted. Year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter was the lowest for six years, at just 1.5%. The credit crunch and fears of an American recession are curbing investors' appetites for emerging markets. Turkey, with a huge current-account deficit, is especially vulnerable. Negotiations for Turkish membership of the European Union, the prospect of which is an anchor for investor confidence, have soured. The IMF programme itself is due to expire next May and the government has yet to decide whether to renew it.
The current-account deficit is being boosted by a rising energy bill. As manufacturers shift to higher value-added goods, they need costlier inputs. Coupled with an overvalued Turkish lira, all this has served to push up the import bill. In previous years the deficit was financed by hot money, making the economy more vulnerable. Now nearly two-thirds of the deficit is covered by FDI, which may hit $22 billion this year. Metin Ar, president of Garanti Securities in Istanbul, predicts that, with the privatisation of motorways and plans for new energy-distribution networks, FDI could rise to $30 billion next year. “Foreigners are so keen to get a foot into the market that they are happy to pay double, triple the real value of assets.”
With their dizzyingly high profits and much untapped retail potential, Turkish banks look appealing targets. New regulations can require capital-adequacy ratios to be as high as 20%, against the international minimum of 8%. “We don't allow any bank to go below 12%,” says Mehmet Simsek, the economy minister. He adds that the state-owned Halkbank is soon to be put on the block.
Mr Simsek, who was snatched into the job from Merrill Lynch in London, agrees that “markets like external anchors” and concedes that Turkey is not immune to external shocks. Yet he sees no crisis on the horizon. His main task is to push through a social-security reform that is a test of the government's commitment to reform. His biggest bugbear is high labour costs. He provoked an outcry when he complained that Turkey had one of the highest wage burdens among OECD countries. High taxes on labour, plus onerous welfare benefits, are a big obstacle to the creation of new jobs. Unemployment hovers at around 10%.
There is little doubt that Mr Simsek has the will and the brains to do what is needed. Ercan Uygur, an economist who taught Mr Simsek at Ankara University, says he was “one of my best students”. Yet some political observers worry that Mr Simsek, who is only 40, may not have enough clout. Unlike his predecessor, Ali Babacan, now Turkey's foreign minister, Mr Simsek is a newcomer to AK politics. His swift rise has provoked some jealousy within the party.
In truth Mr Simsek cuts an unusual figure in the government, and not only as a former investment banker with an American wife. He was born into grinding poverty in the mainly Kurdish province of Batman. He did not even learn Turkish until he was six. By his own admission, he is more comfortable speaking English. A big Shakira fan, he provoked mirth at a recent cabinet meeting when he misused the word transparan, meaning see-through, while talking about the budget.
Yet for now, at least, Mr Simsek has the full confidence of his prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. And it is Mr Erdogan who calls the shots. The concern is whether it may be Mr Simsek who gets the blame should the economy slow further and foreign investors take fright.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

EU urges Turkey to do more on path to membership

BRUSSELS, Dec. 10 (Xinhua) -- Foreign ministers from the European Union (EU) on Monday urged Turkey to conduct further reforms on its path to earning membership of the 27-member bloc.
The ministers acknowledged the ongoing process of revising the Turkish constitution, but stressed that such process should not delay long awaited reforms, "in particular in the key areas of freedom of expression and freedom of religion where Turkey needs to proceed without delay."
During their meeting ahead of the EU summit on Dec. 14, the ministers also called on Turkey to make "significant further efforts" in other areas such as judicial reform, the fight against corruption, minority rights and the strengthening of cultural rights, women's and children's rights, trade union rights and civilian control of the military.
In a statement issued during the meeting, the ministers reaffirmed the need to promptly develop and implement a comprehensive strategy that will guarantee the economic, social and cultural development of Turkey's east and southeast region.
They urged Turkey to "unequivocally" commit to good-neighborly relations and to the peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with the United Nations (UN) Charter.
"In this context, any threat or action which could negatively affect good-neighborly relations and the peaceful settlement of disputes should be avoided," said the statement.
Meanwhile, the ministers expressed their regret that Turkey has not made progress toward the normalization of relations with the Republic of Cyprus.
They urged Turkey to actively support efforts to implement the July 8, 2006 agreement reached between the two sides in Cyprus, in the presence of UN Undersecretary for Political Affairs Ibrahim Gambari, which is aimed at a comprehensive and viable settlement of the Cyprus problem within the UN framework.
The ministers condemned all terrorist attacks and violence in Turkish territory and expressed their solidarity with the Turkish people as well as their support for Turkey's efforts to protect its population and fight terrorism.
In the statement, the ministers regretted the limited progress achieved in political reforms in Turkey, but welcomed the Turkish government's declared intention and renewed commitment in continuing the reform process and addressing the existing shortcomings.
"It (the EU) looks forward to seeing these commitments soon translated into real and tangible actions," said the statement.
"Next year is crucial to further consolidate and implement the EU's enlargement strategy and support the transition process in the Western Balkans," it added.

Turkey's ambitions for EU membership suffer setback

Brussels - Turkey's ambitions to join the European Union suffered a setback Monday after EU foreign ministers, under pressure from France, dropped the term "accession" from a text referring to next week's talks with Ankara. Unlike a similar text approved a year ago, the "Council conclusions on enlargement" text approved by ministers on Monday refers to this month's "Intergovernmental Conferences with Turkey and Croatia" and omits the term "accession" when referring to such talks.
Council sources said the final draft of the text was amended to appease France, whose President Nicolas Sarkozy has emerged as one of the strongest opponents of Turkey's entry into the EU.
Britain and Sweden, which both want Turkey to join the 27-member bloc, are believed to have expressed strong reservations over the approved text.
In their conclusions, ministers also regretted "the limited progress achieved in political reform in Turkey in 2007."
"Significant further efforts are also needed in other areas such as judicial reform, the fight against corruption, minority rights and the strengthening of cultural rights, women's rights, children's rights, trade union rights and the civilian control of the military," the statement said.
Ministers also expressed disappointment over Turkey's failure to make "progress towards normalization of relations with the Republic of Cyprus" and called on Ankara "to unequivocally commit to good neighbourly relations and to the peaceful settlement of disputes" - a reference to the current problems it is facing with Kurdish rebels on its southern border with Iraq.
While ministers also dropped the term "accession" when referring to forthcoming talks with Croatia, the text commended the country "for the overall progress it continued to make in the past year," saying negotiations between Brussels and Zagreb were "on the right track."

Saturday, December 08, 2007

Turkish reform seen tied to progress in EU talks

By Evren Mesci
ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey will reform a law the European Union says unfairly restricts freedom of speech when the EU allows its stalled membership talks to resume, Turkish officials said on Friday.
Turkey has been under heavy EU pressure to amend or scrap article 301 of the penal code which makes it a crime to insult "Turkishness", but Ankara is frustrated by French President Nicolas Sarkozy's efforts to block the negotiation process.
Sarkozy opposes allowing Turkey, a large, relatively poor, Muslim country, to join the 27-nation bloc. German Chancellor Angela Merkel this week also reiterated her opposition to Turkey's membership.
"There is full political will to change article 301, that has been decided on, but the details and timing depend on the EU taking certain steps," said a senior government official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"It will be difficult to press the button on new reforms (if no new chapters are opened)."
French diplomats have been fighting backroom skirmishes in Brussels to keep any reference to "accession" or "membership" in connection with Turkey out of an EU foreign ministers' statement next Monday on enlargement policy, EU sources said.
EU ambassadors met for several hours on Friday to try to resolve that drafting dispute but failed to reach agreement, meaning ministers will have to take up the issue on Monday.
Turkey hopes to open talks on at least two more chapters, or policy areas, under Portugal's EU presidency, which ends on December 31.
A meeting to launch negotiations on health and consumer affairs policy and trans-European networks is set for December 18, diplomats said, provided EU leaders agree next week on creating a "reflection group" to study the bloc's long-term future.
The ambassadors provisionally agreed on the bloc's mandate, which does not mention either enlargement, Turkey or the question of where Europe's final borders might lie.
"WIDER REGION"
Sarkozy initially wanted the group to debate the final borders of Europe, but the draft mandate likely to be adopted at a summit next Friday speaks of examining "how the stability and prosperity both of the Union and of the wider region might best be served in the longer term".
In French eyes, it does not prejudge whether Turkey will be in the Union or the "wider region" in 2020-30. Ankara's friends in the EU are fighting to include a reference to "commitments entered into", to underline the bloc has given its word to Turkey that the objective of the talks is full membership.
Brussels says Turkey should press on with reforms regardless of negative comments by Sarkozy and others in Europe. They say progress on reforms will be Ankara's best argument in trying to overcome opposition to its bid.
But France has been blocking the opening of chapters, diplomats say. Some other EU member states, notably Britain, Spain and Sweden, strongly support Turkey's EU drive. Ankara is not seen joining the bloc before 2015 at the earliest.
A Turkish diplomatic source said Ankara may push through another reform sought by the EU before an expected visit to Turkey by Greek Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis in January.
But he said the reform, which would ease property restrictions on non-Muslim religious minorities in Turkey such as the Greek Orthodox community, could hinge on Greece's steps to bolster rights of its own Turkish-speaking Muslim community in the western Thrace region of northern Greece.
In another reform move, Turkey's ruling AK Party signalled on Friday it plans to ease a ban on the wearing of the Islamic headscarf under a new draft constitution.
"This (new) constitution will solve the headscarf problem in a more libertarian spirit," Dengir Firat, a deputy chairman of the AK Party, told CNN Turk television.
The AK party has hinted many times that it wants to modify or if possible remove the headscarf ban, which also applies to government offices.
Turkey's secularists view the headscarf as a symbol of political Islam and a challenge to the country's separation of religion and state.
(Writing by Gareth Jones; Editing by Michael Winfrey)

Friday, December 07, 2007

Turkey flexes diplomatic muscle as economy booms

By Gareth Jones
REUTERS
6:14 a.m. December 6, 2007
ANKARA – The frenetic travel of President Abdullah Gul highlights Turkey's new self-confidence on the global stage as its economy booms and foreign investment pours into the European Union candidate nation.
Gul's election to the presidency in August has reinforced a growing commercial and diplomatic trend to reach out beyond traditional Western partners to Turkic Central Asia, Russia, Iran, the Arab world and east Asia.
Turkey's expanding ties with these regions, often driven by energy needs, should be seen as complementing, not replacing, its decades-old drive to join the EU, analysts say.
Gul, who as foreign minister helped start EU accession talks, has been in Pakistan and Turkmenistan this week, he goes to Kazakhstan next week. He was in France last week and before that in Georgia.
'This new multi-dimensional foreign policy does not come at the expense of our European vocation, but our place in the world is changing,' said Suat Kiniklioglu, a member of parliament for Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's ruling centre-right AK Party.
'We lack the clout to broker big international deals, but we are getting to a point where Turkey is recognised as a player in places like the Middle East and Central Asia,' he said.
Muslim, secular and democratic Turkey – a NATO member that for decades tended to box well below its diplomatic weight – clearly has much to offer, and the world seems increasingly interested in its perspective.
Almost uniquely in its region, Turkey has good relations with both Iran and Israel, for example, and its peacekeepers are active from Kosovo and Lebanon to Afghanistan.
In the past month alone, the foreign ministers of Iran and the United States have rubbed shoulders at a conference of Iraq's neighbours in Istanbul and the Israeli and Palestinian presidents have jointly addressed Turkey's parliament in Ankara.
Erdogan has also cleverly and confidently used threats to send troops into northern Iraq to fight Kurdish rebels hiding there to push President George W. Bush into sharing intelligence with Turkey to help combat the rebels.
Aware of Turkey's strategic importance as an ally in a difficult region, the United States – and the EU – have turned a blind eye to Turkish cross-border strikes against the rebels.
PRAGMATISM
'Turkey is not a prime mover, it is in the second division, but it is being increasingly listened to across the region,' said Hugh Pope, author of books on Turkey including 'Sons of the Conquerors' about the Turks and Central Asia.
'Turkey has shed some of the former arrogance it showed in its dealings with the Middle East and Central Asia,' he said, emphasising the pragmatism and entrepreneurial spirit displayed by Turkish businessmen, engineers and educators in the region.
Ottoman Turks ruled the Middle East, the Balkans and north Africa for centuries from Istanbul.
Turkey's more active diplomacy is not without its problems. The United States, in particular, is vexed by Turkey's growing energy links with Iran, though Ankara has made clear it shares Washington's opposition to Tehran building nuclear weapons.
The Islamist-rooted AK Party is also respected perhaps more in the Arab world than previous Turkish governments because of its Muslim piety as well as its success in overseeing annual economic growth in Turkey of around 7 percent. Gulf Arab money has been pouring into Istanbul. Analysts say Ahmet Davutoglu, Erdogan's chief foreign policy adviser, is the mastermind behind Turkey's growing diplomatic dynamism during the past five years of AK Party rule.
Like Gul, Davutoglu hails from piously conservative central Anatolia but sees no contradiction between Islam and democracy, between Turkey's EU bid and building closer Middle East ties.
EU STILL KEY
Gul's own approach stands in stark contrast to that of his predecessor, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, a shy, ascetic former judge, who rarely left Ankara and had no interest in foreign affairs.
'Gul really wants to make up for lost time and re-engage, especially in Central Asia,' said Kiniklioglu.
Turkey aims to become an energy hub for Caspian and Central Asian oil and gas exports transiting to Western markets. Existing and planned pipelines across Turkish territory, the West hopes, will reduce its reliance on Russian energy exports.
Analysts said Turkey's central foreign policy goal would remain its EU accession negotiations, launched in 2005.
'Europe is still number one priority, there can be no substitutes... More than 50 percent of Turkey's trade is still with the EU,' said Pope.
'Turkey's higher profile on the world stage is directly linked to its EU candidacy... If Turkey repudiated the EU connection, it would frankly lose much of its prestige with other countries. And Gul understands this very well.'

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Merkel Says German Christian Democrats Oppose Turkey's EU Bid

By Andreas Cremer
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel said her Christian Democratic Union opposes Turkey's bid to become a full member of the European Union, the first time she has articulated outright opposition to Turkish EU membership.
``We are, have been and will remain in favor of a privileged partnership with Turkey, but we're against full membership in the European Union,'' Merkel said in a speech to the Christian Democrats' annual convention in Hanover today.
Merkel's CDU party has until now said that accession talks between the EU and Turkey mustn't rob Turkey of the eventual possibility of becoming a full member. The CDU is now ``right to clarify'' its opposition, Merkel said.
Turkey has made little headway toward joining the EU since it started membership talks in October 2005. Rising European opposition to admitting the predominantly Muslim nation has triggered a backlash against the 27-nation EU in Turkey. Sixty- eight percent of Germans oppose Turkey's EU entry, according to a Forsa poll on Aug. 10.

Debating Turkey and the EU

ANKARA, Turkey. -- In the past two years, the suburbs of Paris have twice witnessed violent clashes between non-native French citizens and the police. Whether religious and cultural differences or poverty, unemployment and racial discrimination are the root causes of these incidents is open to debate. But what's interesting is that in September 2006, before he was elected president, Nicolas Sarkozy visited Washington and argued that then the first French riot stood as one of the reasons he opposes Turkey's European Union membership.
"[I] have often been asked about the place of Muslims in France, because of concern in the United States," Mr. Sarkozy said at an event organized by the French-American Foundation. "My dear friends, let's be consistent. What's the point of worrying about our ability to integrate Muslims in France or in Europe if at the same time, and just as forcefully, the United States asks us to accept Turkey in Europe? Even if you consider that we have a problem with Islam, in which case, you have to give us time to find the ways and means to create a European Islam and reject an Islam in Europe. But don't then give equal support to the integration of a country like Turkey, with 75 million inhabitants. Consistency is part of the relations between Europe and the United States." Indeed, Mr. Sarkozy's point of view is shared by many Europeans.
It's true that Turkey is becoming more Muslim than European — particularly since the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) took power in 2002. Since then, 2006 the Pew Global Attitudes poll found out that 51 percent of Turks define themselves first as Muslim. Being religious is not the problem, but there is a lack of sincere debate about what exactly scares people when they are faced with Islamic practices taking a role in governmental life. If freedom of religion is measured by allowing headscarves in governmental buildings, would it also consider new interpretations of those practices by others? Or whether AKP's understanding of secular government is consistent with European secular rule?
Mr. Sarkozy is right to say that he needs time to "find the ways and means to create a European Islam." But it is also a fact that Europeans allowed political Islam in Turkey to make headscarves the one and only problem with freedom of religion; now, it's time they look deeper into the issue. Turkey's most trusted public opinion survey group, KONDA, led by Tarhan Erdem, yesterday announced the results of a new survey that shows a significant rise in numbers of covered women. According to this survey, in the last four years, there are a million more Turkish women wearing headscarfwhile the ones with turban, which is a sign of political Islam has quadrupled.
Unfortunately, Turkey's secular and liberal elites have denied the role of religion in public life in such a way that they have created a huge mess by not investing in theological education to allow an open-minded approach to matters — understanding what Islam means in the modern world, rather than a strictly literal interpretation. There are a limited number of those theologians, but they are not enough to change a traditionalist mindset.
AKP's insistence on traditionalist practices like the headscarf stands as proof that it refuses to allow open debate on religious interpretations. Mr. Sarkozy may have strange bedfellows with respect to his concerns about Turkey's EU membership; secular Turks may also be worried about their future.
If the AKP is proud that Turkey has opened accession talks with EU on its watch, it is now disinterested in moving forward with reforms of governmental institutions. The European Commission reported "limited progress" in Turkey's political reform process.
According to the Pew Global Attitudes poll, the EU's favorability rating in Turkey dropped from 58 percent in 2004 to 27 percent in 2007. There are a number of thorny issues in Turkey's relations with the EU — including Cyprus, the Armenian genocide allegations and the Kurdish dilemma. Yet not all of the EU's issues are related to those matters. And while the AKP is determined to keep Turkey on track to join the EU, it is sending a number of paradoxical signals. These raise concerns, as the AKP is a relatively new party and it is almost impossible to judge how its rule will affect Turkey. The Turkish scenery, however, looks in absolute chaos for the time being.
Against all the odds it seems that Mr. Sarkozy understands that Turkey's Westernization process is not only limited to its borders and its politicians' responses; it is very much a European project. Yet he may take a more constructive approach in dealing with Turkey. Still, although Mr. Sarkozy said he would end Turkey's accession talks with the EU when he was elected, he has done no such thing. Yet he continues to express his opposition loud and clear, which is only fair it represents the sincere opinion of some of the European population. But the outgoing and the incoming EU presidents, Portugal and Slovenia, continue to express full support to Turkey's membership.
Tulin Daloglu is a freelance writer.