Blowing in different directions?

ALL this year analysts have given warning that Turkey’s membership negotiations with the European Union are being blown off course. Yet only in the past few weeks have people taken serious steps to prevent that happening. A report published by the European Commission on Wednesday November 8th will kick off a frantic period before an EU summit in mid-December, during which political leaders will try desperately to keep the talks going, at least in part, rather than suspending them altogether.

The commission report is highly critical of Turkey. It faults Turkey for backsliding on many promised reforms; for continuing human-rights violations; and for not scrapping the notorious article 301, which makes it a criminal offence to insult “Turkishness”. Above all the commission berates Turkey for not fulfilling its obligation to extend a free-trade protocol to Cyprus, which would mean opening up its ports and airports to the Greek-Cypriots, by the end of the year. The commission stops short of recommending an immediate suspension of the membership talks: but that may come to pass if Turkey does not give some ground by the December summit.

Will Turkey do so? Recently the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, softened his tone on Europe and even promised that article 301 would, after all, be amended. Yet he is refusing to move on Cyprus. He is conscious that there is a new mood of nationalist obduracy among ordinary Turks, who seem ever more disillusioned with the EU. The perception is that Brussels is always demanding change and reform but never offering anything in return. On Cyprus, for example, Greek-Cypriots voted down the 2004 Annan plan to reunify the island, and have since blocked the EU from restoring direct links to the Turkish-Cypriot north—yet the Greek Cypriots are still demanding that Turkey open up its own ports and airports.

Worse still, over the past year or so, political leaders across Europe have been making increasingly negative comments about Turkey’s prospects of joining the EU. In Germany the Christian Democrats, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel, have long been strongly against Turkish membership, even if she has been careful not to block it since she took office. Almost all parties in Austria oppose Turkish entry. In France Nicolas Sarkozy, the centre-right front-runner for next year’s presidential election, has also come out firmly against—and the French constitution now requires a referendum be held before Turkey can join.

Domestic politics in Turkey is not helping matters. Mr Erdogan and his mildly Islamist AK Party are preparing for elections next year, both to parliament and to the presidency. Popular support for EU membership has fallen sharply over the past two years, from around two-thirds of those asked to only one-third. The army, the ruling party and the opposition all resent the demands being made by Brussels. The war in Iraq is also a big problem. Many Turks have turned against America because of it, and some have adopted a broader anti-Western attitude. There is outrage in the Turkish establishment over the increasing autonomy that has been given to the Kurdish northern part of Iraq, which it is feared may only encourage breakaway Kurds in Turkey.

Finland, which currently holds the presidency of the EU, will spend the next few weeks trying to broker a deal over Cyprus, probably involving an agreement whereby Turkey would open its ports to Greek-Cypriots in exchange for allowing Turkish-Cypriots to export goods, under EU supervision, through Famagusta, a port now in Turkish-Cypriot hands. Yet a plan to negotiate just such a deal last weekend was stymied when the parties refused to attend a meeting together. There is no guarantee that the Finns can pull off a deal.

The brinksmanship is likely to continue right up to the December summit. Even if that proves calmer than some expect, with the Turkish parliamentary election to be held in November 2007 there is plenty of opportunity for more stormy times to come.