Monday, March 19, 2007

A cautious welcome for the gringo / istanbul-bilbao


George Bush's new-found sympathy for social justice in Latin America has prompted a copycat tour from Hugo Chávez


IN THE twilight of George Bush's presidency, the word “surge” has come to mean a belated attempt to make up for past mistakes. That applies to Iraq, but also to Mr Bush's week-long, five-country tour of Latin America, which ended on March 14th. His longest trip to the region seemed designed to correct the impression that the United States is too busy battling terrorists to pay much attention to the struggles of Latin American democracies to overcome poverty and drug-fuelled crime.
Mr Bush did not have much new to offer, except in vocabulary: he talked of “social justice”, and of health, education and aid. He visited markets and Mayan ruins, and ate barbecues and guacamole. Predictably, he was greeted with angry (but mainly small) demonstrations. More importantly, he showed that the United States has partners in the region, even among left-leaning governments.


Venezuela's Hugo Chávez did his best to prove the opposite. In a counter-tour which seemingly grew on the hoof to take in a matching, but different, five countries, the populist strongman mocked the American president as a “political corpse” in a Buenos Aires football stadium, denounced the United States as the “most murderous empire in all of history” at a press conference in Port-au-Prince and called capitalism “hell” in a flood-struck town in Bolivia.
In this motorcade joust Mr Bush came out ahead. That is not because the United States is the bigger benefactor but because nowadays its designs in Latin America are less imperial than those of Mr Chávez.
Mr Chávez has one objective: to forge a united anti-American block under his leadership. Mr Bush had several aims. In Brazil, it was ethanol. Aware at last that oil is climate-changing and controlled by unfriendly potentates like Mr Chávez, Mr Bush wants to cut the United States' future petrol consumption by a fifth in ten years. Brazil is already there: 40% of the fuel in Brazilian cars is made from sugar cane.
Mr Bush and Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, agreed to promote ethanol production and use across the region, and to co-operate on research. By fixing purity standards, they hope to make ethanol a globally tradable commodity. But Mr Bush refused to talk about the high tariff that protects American corn farmers, whose ethanol is more costly and carbon-emitting to produce than Brazil's.
There was no visible progress on the Doha round of world trade talks, though the American trade representative, Susan Schwab, spent an extra day in São Paulo to talk to Brazilian officials and industrialists. And Lula, somewhat mystifyingly, insisted that “we're going firmly toward finding the so-called G-spot for making a deal.”
Far from the confrontation desired by Mr Chávez, relations between the biggest powers of North and South America are coming to resemble those between the United States and Europe: there is a recognition on both sides that the overall friendship counts for more than any disagreements on detail. Lula is to visit Mr Bush at Camp David on March 31st.
“This level of presidential diplomacy is unheard of,” points out Paulo Sotero, director of the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC. “It's very important for Brazilians to be recognised in a special way by the United States vis-à-vis the rest of the continent.”
For Uruguay's leftish president, Tabaré Vázquez, hosting Mr Bush was a tacit message to neighbouring Brazil and Argentina, two of his partners in the Mercosur trade grouping, not to take his small country for granted. Uruguay recently signed a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement with the United States. Mr Vázquez would like that to lead to a free-trade deal, though many in his government, not to mention the United States' Congress, do not.


Mr Bush's seven-hour stopover in Bogotá was the first visit by an American president to Colombia's capital since 1982. That was intended to show that American aid to fight the drugs trade and leftist guerrillas, combined with the tough security policies of President Álvaro Uribe, are making the country safer. Even so, 20,000 troops and police were deployed to secure Bogotá's normally tranquil streets.
In Guatemala, the mood was soured by the arrest in Massachusetts this month of hundreds of illegal workers, many of them Guatemalan. Oscar Berger, the president, told Mr Bush that deportations of illegal migrants should end.
Mr Bush said he hoped an immigration reform bill can be approved in the Senate by August. Until then, the American plan to fence out illegal immigrants will cast a shadow over what ought to be a warm friendship between Mr Bush and Felipe Calderón, Mexico's new conservative president. “The United States has a lot to do to regain respect in Latin America,” Mr Calderón bluntly remarked.
Mr Bush tried. He boasted that he had doubled aid to the region, to $1.6 billion. That is only because of an accounting quirk in 2001. The United States has ramped up aid to a few countries, via Plan Colombia, AIDS programmes and the Millennium Challenge Account (for the poorest). But it has cut development aid to a larger group, notes Joy Olson of the Washington Office on Latin America, a left-leaning NGO. Overall, Mr Bush has spent more than his predecessor, Bill Clinton.
Mr Chávez is outspending and out-promising Mr Bush. He said that Venezuela's cheap-oil deals with its neighbours total 200,000 barrels a day (worth perhaps $1.6 billion a year); in addition, he has announced aid totalling some $5.5 billion. Jamaica, added to his tour (along with Haiti) at the last minute, was promised cheap natural gas. Argentina's president, Néstor Kirchner, thanked Mr Chávez for helping “at the most critical moments.”
But most of Mr Chávez's neighbours are not enthusiastic about his leadership nor willing to turn their backs on the United States. Lula's coming trip to Camp David is a sign that Brazil will not be bullied into an anti-American axis. Mr Bush wisely ignored Mr Chávez's taunts. No one will miss the United States' lame duck president more than the Venezuelan.


From The Economist print edition
istanbul-bilbao

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