A generals' election

May 10th 2007 ANKARAFrom The Economist print edition
The Turkish political crisis, continued
“TURKEY is in the throes of a slow military coup,” reckons one seasoned political observer. How else to describe the past few weeks' events, which have forced Turkey's embattled prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to call a general election on July 22nd, before the scheduled November 4th date?
The country is certainly in its worst political crisis in a decade. It has not managed to choose a president to replace Ahmet Necdet Sezer, whose term formally expires on May 16th: the ruling AK Party's candidate, Abdullah Gul, withdrew on May 6th after failing to muster the necessary quorum in parliament. Meanwhile millions of pro-secular demonstrators have marched through Turkey's biggest cities to protest against the mildly Islamist AK government led by Mr Erdogan.
The trouble escalated on April 27th, when the army general staff posted a dramatic statement on its website sketching out the dangers posed by “Islamic fanatics” to Ataturk's secular republic, and vowing to intervene if need be. The army has booted out four governments since 1960. Yet its latest outburst took even the savviest politicians by surprise.
A bigger surprise followed. Rather than roll over like its predecessors, the government is taking the generals head on. First came a statement reminding the brass-hats that they were answerable to the government and not vice versa. Then Mr Erdogan's AK Party tried once again to elect Mr Gul as president, even though the army had made clear that it did not want a man whose wife wears the Islamic headscarf—as Mr Gul's wife does (see article).
Mr Gul was forced to withdraw after a second round of voting in parliament was boycotted by the opposition CHP Party under its antediluvian leader, Deniz Baykal. Thanks to the boycott, the AK fell nine short of the 367 deputies that the constitutional court had ruled needed to be present before voting could proceed.
These games have prompted Mr Erdogan to push for a constitutional change to let voters, not parliament, choose the president. Should Mr Sezer veto this measure, as expected, it may be put to a referendum, to be held with the election on July 22nd. A combative Mr Gul vows then to renew his campaign for the presidency.
The AK Party's bravado stems in part from the continued strong performance of the economy. Unworried by political shenanigans, a foreign-led consortium shelled out $1.2 billion for the operating rights of Izmir's port on May 3rd. An Italian bank is in talks to acquire Turkey's fifth-largest bank, Oyak, for $1.5 billion. And foreign investors, who hold around 70% of floating shares on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, have yet to take fright.
What will the army do next? Much will depend on the outcome of the election. The dream scenario for the generals and their civilian allies would be if AK is pushed into opposition and so unable to pick the new president. A coalition government could then take over. The generals seem unfazed by the memory of a succession of weak coalitions that took Turkey to the brink of financial ruin in 2001.
In pursuit of this goal, and after some nudging from the general staff, two centre-right parties announced a merger last week. Mr Baykal says that he is on the verge of cementing a deal between CHP and a smaller left-wing rival. The rising tide of nationalism also means that the ultra-nationalist right-wing MHP may bag the minimum 10% of the vote needed to get into parliament seats. In a bid to surmount this barrier, the biggest Kurdish party says it may field independent candidates in 45 of Turkey's 81 provinces.
Despite all this, AK Party officials predict that they will pick up a bigger share than the 34% of the national vote they took in 2002, and return to power alone. “That won't necessarily be a good thing for Turkey either,” says Morton Abramowitz, a former American ambassador to Turkey. “A strong AK government could have a polarising effect.” Worse, it might prompt the generals to wade in again.