Turkey's Mid-summer General Elections

[Commentary] Under the Anatolian blazing sun, a nation ponders its uncertain future

In the Beyoglu district of Istanbul where I am staying the sights and sounds of my neighborhood street entranced me. As in each and every morning from the Mosque an almost plaintive human howl blares above the rooftops announcing the dawn and calling worshipers to prayer. This city is captivating in so many ways. Istiklal, or independence street, pulsates to the rhythm of traditional and jazz beats as people stroll along and tramways pass by.

The coffee shops and tea rooms are teeming with activity on a hot summer's night; patrons smoke a water pipe, play back gammon sip tea and wile away the evening in the coolness of the night air. With such bliss nothing could be further away from the minds of the millions who live in this cosmopolitan setting than elections.

Yet Turkey, however trite it may sound, is at a crossroads. And a crucial crossroads it is. Turks surely know this but would prefer to escape to the coast-lines by the sea than spend a day on July 22 lining up under the sizzling sun at the polling booth.

The exceptional nature of these general elections cannot be understated. In an unexpected haste the elections were called this spring amid rising nationalist tensions fueled by the ongoing Kurdish revolt in the southeast and the murder of Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. This vote will determine the country's direction in the 21st century . Its outcome is likely to tilt or shift the country either Eastwards closer to Russian influence and Islam or towards the West as a distant cousin clamoring to join the EU family which already is far too big.

In Istanbul, religion and politics seem to mix with less friction than in other Muslim societies such as Egypt for instance. In the area where I reside it's the governing AK party's territory. The Justice and Development or AK party of Prmine Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will likely according to local press and polls win 300 to 310 seat in the upcoming Turkish general elections slightly under the 367 seat required for an absolute majority.

A coalition composed of a widely diverse spectrum from left to right may be in the cards. If reelected Erdogan's AK party might have to compose with the "left wing" Republican People's party (CHP) and the ultra nationalist National Movement Party (MHP) in order to govern. These are strange bedfellows indeed. There is even speculation in some media circles that the Kurdish nationalist might play a pivotal role by winning enough seats in the Turkish parliament to hold the balance of power in new the parliament.

But politics here has a Byzantine complexity and nature to it. A new government is supposed to elect a new president as well to replace the outgoing Ahmet Necdet Sezer. This is to be done as my contacts at the Turkish press association tells me "within months." So in the midst of one of the hottest summers in living memory Turks are seemingly and reluctantly dragged from their beaches and coastal resorts and cottages to decide where Turkey will go and who will lead them there.

The Generals: Turkey's Ultimate Power Brokers

To add to the potential mess a constitutional reform is in the cards as well. it still remains unclear if the Presidential mandate is to be legitimized by means of the a parliamentary vote emanating from the majority party's selection of a candidate or a direct popular consulation with the citzens.

As Ilnur Cevik writes in the New Anatolian newspaper weekly, "Turkey has to overhaul its seriously defective Constitution ..." which apparently favors the Army over the perceived whims of the polticians and demagogues.

Despite Turkey's impressive democratic credentials, the military remains the ultimate guardian of secularism and stability in the country. The father of the republic Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, his legacy and his armies' brilliant leadership still looms large in the minds of the Turks in this somewhat youthful and hesitant democracy.

If any prolonged political uncertainty ensues following the vote the army won't likely stand for it and might step in to restore order if need be. They have done so in the past. But then this is mere speculation which goes with the shifty and dodgy territory of foreseeing the unpredictable in Turkish politics.

Nothing is certain in this great land which hosted an empire which later fell then reemerged as a republic only to be transformed into a democracy under the cautious stewardship of a watchful military elite .

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